Newsweek cites Super El Niño risks

Newsweek reported on May 20 that a possible “super” El Niño later this year could alter hurricane activity and shift U.S. rainfall patterns, citing NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Brad Pugh. NOAA’s latest ENSO discussion, issued May 14, said El Niño is likely to emerge soon and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. The agency has not declared El Niño yet; its current status remains an El Niño Watch. NOAA is due to publish its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, one day after the Newsweek report. ### What has NOAA officially said so far? NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on May 14 that ENSO-neutral conditions were still in place, but El Niño was likely to emerge soon. The agency put the odds of El Niño forming in May-July 2026 at 82% and the odds of it continuing through December 2026-February 2027 at 96%. (newsweek.com) The same NOAA discussion said there is still “substantial uncertainty” about peak strength. No strength category, NOAA said, had a probability above 37%, meaning the agency has not officially forecast a strong or “super” El Niño at this stage. ### Where does the “super El Niño” language come from? Newsweek used the phrase “super” El Niño in its May 20 report on potential effects on the Colorado River system and broader weather patterns. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The article said a stronger event could bring relief to parts of the drought-stricken U.S. West and cited Brad Pugh for the typical hurricane and precipitation patterns associated with El Niño. Brad Pugh is a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, according to NOAA staff pages. NOAA’s public staff listings describe his work on climate forecasts, drought outlooks and related products. ### What did Brad Pugh say El Niño usually does to hurricanes? Brad Pugh told Newsweek that El Niño typically favors decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic and increased activity in the Pacific. (newsweek.com) Newsweek’s report said El Niño can also support above-normal winter precipitation in the Southwest, though that wetter signal weakens north of the Four Corners region. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) CBS News reported on May 15 that a growing El Niño tends to make the eastern Pacific more favorable for tropical cyclone development while pushing Atlantic conditions in the opposite direction, with more wind shear and relatively cooler waters. CBS said that setup does not eliminate Atlantic storms, but historically points to lower activity than average. (newsweek.com) A National Weather Service page from the Fort Worth office said El Niño-driven subtropical jet stream shear in summer and fall can help suppress tropical development in part of the Atlantic basin. That page also said the pattern can contribute to a rainier setup later in the year across parts of the southern United States. ### Does El Niño guarantee a wetter Southwest or a quiet Atlantic season? (cbsnews.com) NOAA said on May 14 that stronger El Niño events do not ensure stronger impacts. The agency said they can only make certain outcomes more likely, and directed readers to seasonal outlooks for probabilities of anomalies. Newsweek’s report described the Colorado River implications in conditional terms, saying a potential super El Niño could improve snowpack, reservoir levels and water supplies across parts of the West. (weather.gov) The article also noted the Colorado River system’s importance to seven U.S. states and parts of Mexico. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### What should readers watch next? NOAA is scheduled to release its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook at 11:00 a.m. EDT on May 21, according to reports previewing the announcement. That outlook is expected to include projected ranges for named storms and other basin measures. (newsweek.com) The next official NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for June 11, according to the Climate Prediction Center. That update should show whether the current El Niño Watch has shifted to an official El Niño event and whether forecasters have more confidence on eventual strength. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) (msn.com)