China’s EV & battery surge
Data shows massive Chinese auto exports into the EU this year—EV exports up 61%, batteries up 76%, and PHEVs up 158%—with big gains in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Analysts argue Europe’s renewable and EV strategies must reckon with China’s dominance across modules (86%), batteries (59%) and critical minerals (~80%). (x.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/2035293489299165535, x.com/NinaDSchick/status/2035029570336780701)
China now accounts for roughly 85% of global battery cell manufacturing capacity, according to the International Energy Agency’s recent status report on batteries and supply. (iea.org) Top Chinese battery firms captured the bulk of domestic installations in 2025: CATL installed ~333.6 GWh (about 43.4% of China’s market) and BYD installed ~165.8 GWh (about 21.6%), per China industry data. (cnevpost.com) An IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook found China is the leading refiner for 19 of 20 strategic minerals with an average market share near 70%, while sector-specific data shows China held about 78% of global lithium‑hydroxide capacity by 2024. (iea.org) The European Commission published guidance on January 12, 2026, allowing Chinese BEV exporters to propose price‑undertaking offers (minimum import prices and related commitments) as an alternative to anti‑subsidy duties. (policy.trade.ec.europa.eu) Chinese OEMs are localising production to blunt trade measures: BYD began trial passenger‑car output at its Szeged, Hungary plant in early 2026 with series production slated for Q2 and an eventual target of up to 300,000 vehicles annually. (electrive.com) China’s export push translated into a large volume shift in 2025—official industry tallies and market trackers show Chinese NEV exports more than doubled last year (roughly 2.6 million units across markets) and Europe received several hundred thousand China‑built EVs as brands like BYD and others gained share near mid‑teens in the EU EV market. (techinasia.com)
