Vision 2030 Reassessment

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has reached its 10-year mark with stronger non-oil growth and tourism, but a growing push to scale plans to what can be financed and finished. (vision2030.gov.sa) (imf.org) (agbi.com) The official 2024 Vision 2030 report said 85% of initiatives were completed or on track, and 93% of key performance indicators for Vision Realization Programs and national strategies were fully achieved or on track. The same report said the program enters its “third and final phase” in 2026. (vision2030.gov.sa 1) (vision2030.gov.sa 2) The International Monetary Fund said non-oil real gross domestic product grew 4.2% in 2024 and non-oil activity expanded 4.9% year on year in the first quarter of 2025, even as oil output cuts pulled overall 2024 growth down to 1.8%. The fund also said unemployment among Saudi nationals fell to 7% in 2024, below the original Vision 2030 target. (imf.org) Tourism has become one of the clearest markers of that shift. Saudi Arabia’s tourism ministry said the kingdom recorded about 30 million inbound tourists in 2024, up 8% from 2023, while total domestic and inbound visitors reached about 116 million. (spa.gov.sa) (mt.gov.sa) Labor-market targets have moved too. Vision 2030’s indicators page shows women’s participation in the labor market at 34.2%, up from 17% in 2017, while the broader “A Thriving Economy” page lists 35.4% for Saudi women in the third quarter of 2024. (vision2030.gov.sa 1) (vision2030.gov.sa 2) The reassessment comes as financing conditions have tightened. Saudi Arabia’s 2025 budget projected a deficit of SAR101 billion, or about 2.3% of gross domestic product, and the IMF said lower oil proceeds and investment-linked imports had already pushed the current account and fiscal balances into deficit in 2024. (mof.gov.sa) (imf.org) That pressure is showing up in the banking system. The IMF said strong credit growth is creating funding pressures, and its August 2025 staff report said lending tied to corporates, mortgages and giga-projects was outpacing deposit growth. Fitch Ratings said in February 2026 that banks’ exposure to Vision 2030 giga-projects was still limited but rising. (imf.org) (fitchratings.com) That is pushing the program toward phasing and operating returns instead of headline scale. AGBI reported this month that officials and investors are putting more weight on projects that can open in stages, attract private capital and produce cash flow sooner, rather than relying on long-dated state backing. (agbi.com) Recent tourism decisions point the same way. Skift reported on April 16 that Saudi Arabia had cut back state tourism funding for some large projects, including parts of Neom and the Red Sea pipeline, as ministries shifted attention toward near-term events, private investment and assets closer to operation. (skift.com) Vision 2030 was launched in April 2016 as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plan to reduce dependence on oil, raise private-sector activity and remake sectors from tourism to logistics. Ten years on, the scorecard looks less like a launch document and more like a delivery test. (vision2030.gov.sa 1) (vision2030.gov.sa 2)