China Q1 growth snapshot

China’s economy grew 5.0% from a year earlier in the first quarter of 2026, matching last year’s full-year pace and landing at the top of Beijing’s target range. (stats.gov.cn) The National Bureau of Statistics said gross domestic product reached 33.42 trillion yuan in January through March, up 1.3% from the previous quarter after seasonal adjustment. Beijing set a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5.0% on March 5. (stats.gov.cn, gov.cn) The split inside the data was sharp. Industrial output rose 6.1% in the quarter and exports climbed 14.7% in dollar terms, while retail sales grew 2.4% and March’s urban surveyed unemployment rate edged up to 5.4%. (stats.gov.cn, fxstreet.com, cnbc.com) Property stayed a drag. Reuters reported real-estate investment fell 11.2% in the first three months of 2026, extending a slump that has weighed on household wealth, construction demand and confidence. (usnews.com) That leaves the economy looking like two tracks at once: factories, infrastructure and overseas sales on one side, and consumers, housing and private confidence on the other. CKGSB said 2026 opened with “the ongoing property slump and weak consumer confidence” even as exports and high-tech manufacturing stayed strong. (english.ckgsb.edu.cn) The imbalance is more visible because 2025 already leaned heavily on external demand. Official data showed final consumption contributed 2.6 percentage points to last year’s 5.0% growth, while net exports contributed 1.6 points and investment 0.8 points. (gov.cn) Economists are now arguing over how much Beijing should do for demand rather than supply. BNP Paribas said authorities were expected to keep policy supportive but cautious in 2026 while prioritizing private consumption, and HSBC said this year’s policy discussion had shifted toward a stronger domestic-demand push under the new five-year plan. (fxstreet.com, fxstreet.com) Companies are also chasing demand where it is growing fastest: older consumers. CKGSB said nearly one in five people in China were age 60 or above by the end of 2024, and that number is projected to rise from 310 million to 400 million by 2035. (english.ckgsb.edu.cn) That “silver economy” now spans healthcare, housing, finance, technology and leisure, as brands look for spending power outside the weak property cycle and cautious youth consumption. China’s first-quarter growth number held steady, but the next question is whether households start spending like it. (english.ckgsb.edu.cn, stats.gov.cn)