Egg prices easing

Egg prices in the United States are falling fast after a winter bird flu shock, and one of the country’s biggest egg companies is already showing what that reset looks like in its numbers. Cal-Maine Foods said net sales in its fiscal third quarter fell to $667.6 million, down from $1.4 billion a year earlier, as egg prices cooled and the market moved away from last year’s shortage-driven extremes. (calmainefoods.com) (fb.org) The swing follows a brutal stretch in January and February 2026, when highly pathogenic avian influenza hit commercial egg operations and removed millions of birds from production. The American Farm Bureau Federation said 15.5 million birds were affected in those two months, but that was still 56 percent fewer than in the same period of 2025, which helps explain why prices have eased faster this time. (fb.org) (agri-pulse.com) Egg prices react to bird losses the way airline tickets react when half the seats disappear. When laying hens are culled after an outbreak, the supply of eggs drops immediately, but rebuilding a flock takes months, so prices can spike long before shoppers see more cartons on store shelves. (caes.ucdavis.edu) (ams.usda.gov) That supply picture is now improving. The United States Department of Agriculture said in its April 3 Egg Markets Overview that no new highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks were reported that week, and wholesale prices in the Midwest had fallen to $1.46 per dozen for large white shell eggs delivered to warehouses. (ams.usda.gov) Producer prices have moved down even further in some channels. The same United States Department of Agriculture report said the price to producers for large cartoned shell eggs declined to $1.28 per dozen, showing that the pressure is coming off before eggs reach the grocery shelf. (ams.usda.gov) Retail prices usually follow wholesale prices with a delay, because grocers buy inventory under existing contracts and adjust shelf prices over time rather than overnight. By February 2026, the average U.S. city price for a dozen Grade A large eggs had fallen to $2.50, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data compiled in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database. (fred.stlouisfed.org) (bls.gov) That consumer price is far below the panic levels seen during the earlier shortage cycle. Recent reporting based on federal data said February’s $2.50 average was down sharply from the record highs reached in 2025, reflecting a larger laying flock and fewer disease losses than the market feared at the start of this year. (wisfarmer.com) (agri-pulse.com) Cal-Maine sits near the center of this story because it is the largest producer and distributor of fresh shell eggs in the United States. When prices were high and supply was tight, the company’s sales surged; when prices normalized and supply recovered, revenue dropped even though that shift is actually a sign that the broader market is stabilizing. (calmainefoods.com 1) (calmainefoods.com 2) The company’s latest quarter covered the period ended February 28, 2026, which captured much of the winter volatility but also the beginning of the market comedown. Cal-Maine had flagged ahead of time that it would release fiscal third-quarter results on April 1, 2026, and its investor materials now frame the business against a much calmer egg market than a year ago. (calmainefoods.com 1) (calmainefoods.com 2) The recovery is not just about fewer outbreaks. Agri-Pulse reported that U.S. egg production rose 5 percent in February from a year earlier, helped by fewer highly pathogenic avian influenza cases and a larger pipeline of young hens ready to join the laying flock. (agri-pulse.com) There is still a reason the industry is cautious heading into spring. Wild bird migration can carry the virus across regions, and the United States Department of Agriculture continues to track detections in commercial flocks, backyard flocks, and wild birds as part of its response system. (aphis.usda.gov) (epa.gov) For shoppers, the simplest read is this: the egg aisle is getting closer to normal because the hen population is recovering faster than it did during the worst phase of last year’s outbreak. For producers like Cal-Maine, that same return to normal means lower selling prices, lower revenue, and a market that looks less dramatic but healthier than the one that produced last year’s windfall. (fb.org) (calmainefoods.com)