India, Pakistan mark ceasefire year

A year after India and Pakistan stepped back from the edge, the strange part is not that the ceasefire is still holding. It’s that almost nothing else has improved. The guns are mostly quiet, but the political relationship is still jammed shut. Trade is suspended, visas remain curtailed, border links are disrupted, and even the water-sharing framework that once survived wars is still in limbo. ### What exactly happened a year ago? The crisis began after the April 22, 2025 attack in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians in one account and 27 people in another widely cited analysis, showing how disputed even the baseline facts became. India answered with strikes on Pakistan on May 7, and the two nuclear-armed neighbors fought for four days before agreeing to a ceasefire on May 10. (dawn.com) ### Why did that clash feel different? Because this was not just another exchange along the Line of Control. Analysts say the 2025 crisis crossed older limits in range, weapons, and tempo. India used cruise missiles including BrahMos and SCALP-EG, Pakistan used conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles, and both sides used drones in ways that looked more like a modern multidomain fight than the old pattern of artillery duels and air scares. (stimson.org) ### So why hasn’t the ceasefire turned into peace? Because the ceasefire stopped the shooting, not the dispute. Washington said on May 10, 2025 that the two governments had agreed not just to an immediate ceasefire but also to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site. But that follow-on process never really took shape. India pushed back against the idea of outside mediation, while Pakistan expected the crisis to create diplomatic momentum that never arrived. (stimson.org) ### What is still frozen today? A lot. Chatham House’s snapshot from the first weeks after the truce said punitive steps stayed in place — suspended visa services, airspace restrictions, a ban on bilateral trade, and the closure of the Attari-Wagah crossing. Dawn’s anniversary analysis says that freeze has hardened into a colder equilibrium, with the border shut, trade suspended, and military hotlines functioning mainly as emergency tools rather than real channels of engagement. (state.gov) ### Why does the water issue matter so much? Because the Indus Waters Treaty used to be one of the few pieces of India-Pakistan cooperation that outlived crises. Now it is part of the crisis. Chatham House noted in 2025 that India had suspended the treaty, and Dawn says it remains “in abeyance” a year later. That turns water into a live strategic pressure point, not just a legal dispute. (chathamhouse.org) ### Is the risk of another clash actually lower now? Not necessarily. The ceasefire reduced immediate danger, but several analysts think the long-term risk may be worse because both sides came away with their own victory stories and new military lessons. Chatham House argued that without meaningful political dialogue, renewed hostilities are a matter of when, not if. Stimson’s review makes a similar point in a different way — the 2025 conflict set new precedents that future crises could build on. (chathamhouse.org) ### What does the anniversary really show? Basically, South Asia has a functioning brake pedal but no steering wheel. The U.S. and others helped stop the fighting in May 2025, yet nobody built a durable political process afterward. So one year on, India and Pakistan are living inside a tense truce — stable enough to avoid war for now, but too brittle to count as peace. (state.gov) (chathamhouse.org)