Romania inflation spikes

Romania’s inflation turned higher again in March, breaking a five-month slowdown and pushing annual consumer-price growth to 9.87%. (rri.ro) Romania’s National Institute of Statistics data, reported on April 14, showed prices rose from 9.31% in February. Services posted the fastest annual increase at 11.05%, followed by non-food goods at 10.89% and food at 7.67%. (rri.ro) That move puts inflation far above the National Bank of Romania’s target band centered on 2.5%, with a tolerance range of plus or minus 1 percentage point. The central bank’s February inflation report had projected 3.4% inflation for the first quarter of 2026 under its baseline scenario. (bnr.ro, bnr.ro) ING economist Frantisek Taborsky said March inflation should stay above 10% in the coming months and peak near 11%. He said that outlook leaves the National Bank of Romania on hold, with no rate cuts expected in 2026. (fxstreet.com) Romania had been easing gradually before March. Trading Economics data compiled from official releases shows annual inflation at 9.3% in February and 9.9% in March, after months of decline from late 2025. (tradingeconomics.com) Romania Insider reported that fuel prices jumped 6.5% in the first month of the Iran war, adding a fresh external shock to an economy already dealing with sticky domestic price growth. The same report said the National Bank of Romania’s earlier forecast, prepared before the Middle East conflict, had pointed to 3.9% inflation by the end of 2026. (romania-insider.com) The National Bank of Romania’s February report had already flagged persistent services inflation and revised its end-2026 forecast for adjusted core inflation to 4.0%. Core inflation strips out some volatile items to show the underlying trend in prices. (bnr.ro) For households, the March data means the biggest pressure is no longer limited to groceries. The fastest increases are now in services and non-food goods, the categories that cover everyday bills from repairs and personal care to household items and utilities. (rri.ro) For policymakers, the March print leaves little room for an early pivot. Inflation is moving away from the central bank’s target, not toward it. (rri.ro, bnr.ro, fxstreet.com)