India urged into US-China tech race

Indian Express columnists wrote on May 22 that India should not try to stay equidistant as competition between the United States and China moves deeper into advanced technology, supply chains and industrial capacity. Their argument was that semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and critical minerals are no longer side issues in geopolitics but core areas where economic and security policy now overlap. A separate U.S. market analysis published on May 21 pointed to a 48-month high in U.S. manufacturing activity and said AI-related capital expenditure, more than tariffs, was powering the rebound. Together, the pieces describe a contest shaped less by headline trade barriers and more by who controls investment, compute, fabrication and inputs. ### Why are Indian analysts talking about semiconductors and AI now? The Indian Express article published on May 22 said the U.S.-China contest is intensifying under Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, and argued that India “can’t sit on the sidelines.” It said diplomatic balancing would not be enough if India does not build domestic capability in frontier technologies and join trusted technology partnerships. The same article identified semiconductors, AI, quantum technologies and critical minerals as the main arenas where India should work more closely with Washington. It framed those sectors as the infrastructure of future power rather than as narrow commercial industries. ### What is the U.S.-India mechanism already in place? India’s Principal Scientific Adviser says the U.S.-India TRUST initiative is the updated form of the earlier Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, or iCET. (indianexpress.com) The government page says TRUST was announced during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Washington visit on February 13, 2025, and kept the earlier focus on semiconductors, AI and quantum while adding critical mineral supply chains, biotechnology, energy and space technologies. The same official page says a central part of TRUST is an AI Infrastructure Roadmap meant to expand market access, investment and infrastructure for U.S.-origin AI buildout in India. Carnegie’s April analysis said the initiative also commits the two countries to building trusted and resilient supply chains, including in semiconductors and critical minerals. ### What does the U.S. manufacturing rebound have to do with this? (psa.gov.in) Benzinga reported on May 21 that S&P Global’s flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 55.3 in May, the highest level in 48 months. The report said factory output grew at its fastest pace in four years, while manufacturers posted their biggest payroll gains in 11 months and their strongest optimism since February 2025. (psa.gov.in) That report argued the rebound was being driven more by AI infrastructure spending than by tariffs. Benzinga tied the improvement to heavy capital expenditure tied to data centers, power systems and related industrial buildout, echoing its earlier April report that said AI was doing “the heavy lifting” in manufacturing momentum. ### Where do critical minerals fit into the picture? (benzinga.com) The U.S. State Department’s Span magazine said the TRUST initiative includes cooperation on recovering and processing critical minerals such as lithium. It said U.S. officials view access to critical minerals as essential to technological advancement and economic security, and described India as a partner in building more resilient supply chains. (benzinga.com) Carnegie’s assessment of iCET and the later TRUST framework said semiconductor and mineral cooperation matters because both sectors depend on long, politically exposed supply chains. That makes raw materials, processing and fabrication capacity part of the same policy conversation. ### What should readers watch next? February 13, 2025, remains the key formal marker because that is when the two governments announced TRUST and expanded the agenda beyond semiconductors, AI and quantum to critical minerals. (spanmag.state.gov) The Principal Scientific Adviser’s TRUST page and subsequent government updates are the clearest official record of which projects move from framework language to implementation. May 2026 data will also be watched closely because the latest U.S. manufacturing reading has become part of the argument over what now drives industrial policy. (carnegieendowment.org) If later PMI releases and company spending plans continue to show AI-led investment strength, officials in India, the United States and partner countries will have a clearer benchmark for where the next round of supply-chain competition is heading. (benzinga.com) (psa.gov.in)