State briefings warn California could face gasoline supply shortfall

California energy officials told lawmakers on May 5 that they can reliably see gasoline and crude shipments coming into the state only about six weeks ahead. That testimony did not mean California will run out of gasoline in six weeks, according to the California Energy Commission and later fact checks of the hearing record. (calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org) It did mean officials see a narrower planning window as the state lebalances its fuel system around refinery closures, imports and summer demand. AAA said California’s average regular gasoline price was $6.14 a gallon on May 16, the highest state average in the country. (politifact.com) ### Did state officials say California has only six weeks of gas left? Siva Gunda, vice chair of the California Energy Commission, told an Assembly oversight hearing on May 5 that current and projected supply was sufficient to cover consumer demand for roughly the next six weeks. (investorvalero.com) PolitiFact reported that the statement referred to the commission’s forecast horizon, not a countdown to empty tanks. Niki Woodard, a California Energy Commission spokesperson, told PolitiFact that the six-week time frame is similar to a weather forecast: it is the period officials say they can predict with the most confidence. The same report said California’s gasoline supply during that period remained within historical range. (calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org) ### Why does the forecast get murkier after mid-June? California’s fuel market is relying more heavily on marine imports as in-state refining contracts, according to a May 5 presentation by the California Energy Commission. The slide deck said California imported about 167,000 barrels a day of gasoline in 2025 and projected 2026 volumes to be higher. (calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org) The commission’s presentation said gasoline and blendstock imports are growing and that suppliers from the Bahamas, Asia and Europe are adding flexibility during periods of tight supply. The same materials said the commission is evaluating marine terminals and related infrastructure to handle higher volumes. (politifact.com) ### Which refinery changes are tightening the system? Phillips 66 said on October 16, 2024 that it planned to cease operations at its Los Angeles-area refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company said it would work with the state to supply fuel markets and meet ongoing consumer demand from other sources inside and outside its refining network. (autl.assembly.ca.gov) Valero said on April 16, 2025 that it had notified the California Energy Commission of its intent to idle, restructure or cease refining operations at its Benicia refinery by the end of April 2026. Governor Gavin Newsom said on January 6, 2026 that Valero had updated the state that it would idle the refinery and keep supplying Northern California through inventories and imports beyond April. (autl.assembly.ca.gov) ### What does that mean for pump prices right now? AAA said California’s average regular gasoline price was $6.140 a gallon on May 16, compared with a U.S. average of $4.517. The state average was $5.864 a month earlier and $4.922 a year earlier, according to AAA’s daily price tracker. (investor.phillips66.com) Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, told PolitiFact that the six-week window is “constantly rolling” because new shipments and refinery output are added every day. That means price risk is tied less to a fixed deadline than to whether imports, refinery operations and global shipping keep pace with demand. ### What are officials doing next? The California Energy Commission said in its May 5 materials that it is evaluating terminal and marine infrastructure capacity as import volumes rise. (investorvalero.com) Newsom’s office said on January 6 that the administration and Valero would continue working together on options for the Benicia site while maintaining fuel supply reliability. (gasprices.aaa.com) Summer is the next test. State officials have said they can forecast supply through about mid-June, and AAA’s daily price tracker offers the clearest public gauge of whether tighter supply or import disruptions are feeding through to California pump prices. (autl.assembly.ca.gov) (politifact.com)