Maritime chokepoints tightening
Drought and structural issues at the Panama Canal, plus persistent pressure at Suez and Bab al‑Mandeb, are compounding disruptions to global shipping beyond the Gulf. Reports describe draft restrictions and reduced cargo weight limits at Panama even as the canal remains busy, suggesting delays and cargo reshuffles rather than a simple traffic collapse. (thefinancialexpress.com.bd) (prensa.com) (worldpoliticsreview.com)
Global shipping is absorbing pressure at three chokepoints at once: the Panama Canal is moving ships again, but the Red Sea route is still risky and uneven. (pancanal.com) (maritime.dot.gov) The Panama Canal handled 13,404 transits in 2025, and Panama Canal Authority data cited by La Prensa showed 3,107 high-draft transits in October-December 2025, up 22.8% from 2,531 a year earlier. (pancanal.com) (prensa.com) La Prensa reported in July 2025 that the canal had returned to 36 daily transit slots and logged 9,000 transits in the first nine months of fiscal 2025, with revenue up 14% to $4.1 billion. (prensa.com) That rebound did not erase the canal’s water problem. The Panama Canal Authority is still advancing the Rio Indio reservoir project, a $1.5 billion plan that La Prensa said would take six years and include the resettlement of about 500 families. (prensa.com) In the Red Sea, the security picture remains the bigger brake on normal traffic. A March 2026 United States Maritime Administration advisory said the Houthis still pose a threat in the southern Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Gulf of Aden, after more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels affecting over 60 nations from November 2023 to October 2025. (maritime.dot.gov) The advisory said two bulk carriers were sunk in July 2025, four seafarers were killed, and a Dutch-flagged cargo ship was hit by a missile in the Gulf of Aden on September 29, 2025, killing one mariner. (maritime.dot.gov) Suez Canal Authority officials are trying to win traffic back, not declaring a full recovery. In a February 16, 2026 meeting, Chairman Ossama Rabiee said Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk’s Gemini Cooperation had shifted one India-Mediterranean service back to Suez from the Cape of Good Hope, while stressing that safety in the Red Sea still drives routing decisions. (suezcanal.gov.eg) The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said in September 2025 that maritime trade growth was expected to slow to 0.5% in 2025, after 2.2% in 2024, as political tensions and rerouted shipping lanes pushed vessels onto longer voyages around southern Africa. (unctad.org) Shipping lines can work around one bottleneck by paying more, sailing farther or reshuffling cargo. When Panama depends on water management and Suez depends on security escorts and war-risk calculations, the delays spread through schedules instead of showing up as a simple collapse in ship counts. (prensa.com) (unctad.org)
