Iran-Israel Conflict Escalates Dramatically

The past 48 hours saw major escalation in Iran-Israel tensions with reports of U.S.-backed Israeli strikes and Ayatollah Khamenei's reported death. Military expert Robert Mood warns that 'hope is a bad strategy' for regime change, noting Iran's 90 million citizens and deeply embedded Revolutionary Guard make this unlike past interventions.

The hostility between Iran and Israel is a post-1979 phenomenon. Before the Islamic Revolution, the two countries maintained close ties. Since 1985, they have been locked in a proxy conflict, with Iran arming groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, and Israel conducting assassinations and airstrikes against Iranian assets, a conflict that escalated to direct military exchanges in 2024. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was established in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini specifically to protect the Islamic Revolution, operating as a parallel force to the regular army. Accountable only to the Supreme Leader, the IRGC controls its own ground, naval, and air forces, has an estimated 190,000 members, and wields immense influence over Iran's economy and politics. Iran possesses the largest active military in the Middle East, with approximately 610,000 personnel. Its military doctrine relies on deterrence through asymmetric capabilities, including the region's most diverse ballistic missile arsenal, a large fleet of drones, and a network of regional proxy forces known as the "Axis of Resistance." Tensions over Iran's nuclear program have been a primary driver of the conflict. After the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, Iran accelerated its nuclear activities, enriching uranium to 60% purity—a short technical step from weapons-grade. Prior to recent attacks, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could no longer verify that Iran's program was exclusively peaceful. The current operation follows a significant escalation in 2025. In June of that year, Israel and Iran fought a 12-day war after Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities. That conflict ended in a tense ceasefire after the U.S. also bombed three Iranian nuclear sites. The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei marks the end of a 37-year rule that began when he succeeded revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. The strikes reportedly killed Kham

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