Euro Weakens as Investors Flee to US Dollar

The strengthening Thai baht is creating significant headwinds for the country's rice exporters, with the Thai Rice Exporters Association forecasting 2026 exports to hit a five-year low of 7.03 million tonnes. Every one-baht appreciation against the US dollar makes Thai rice $12-$15 more expensive per tonne, eroding its competitiveness against rivals like Vietnam and India. India's recent lifting of its ban on non-basmati rice exports is expected to flood the global market, putting further downward pressure on prices. This move, combined with a bumper harvest, positions India to dominate the market, particularly in the first quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, Vietnam is leveraging free trade agreements like the EVFTA to export rice to the European Union at a 0% tariff, boosting its competitiveness. In Europe, consumer demand is shifting towards specialty, aromatic, and organic rice varieties. The European rice market was valued at USD 7.8 billion and is projected to grow, driven by health consciousness and the popularity of Asian cuisines. This trend presents an opportunity for Thai exporters to focus on premium and certified sustainable rice, which command higher prices. However, navigating the European market requires attention to evolving regulations. The EU is implementing a safeguard mechanism, expected to take effect January 1, 2027, which could trigger higher tariffs on rice imports that exceed historical averages. Additionally, there is a growing emphasis on sustainability, with major retailers like Lidl now offering rice certified by the Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP). For premium positioning, Thai exporters can look to publications like *European Supermarket Magazine* and *Food Business News* to understand buyer priorities. Key trends to monitor include the rising demand for organic products, with Germany being the largest market, and the increasing use of rice in ready-to-eat meals and other value-added products.