Europe warns jet‑fuel risk

Europe’s airports say a jet-fuel shortage could hit within three weeks if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume. (nytimes.com) Airports Council International Europe, which represents more than 600 airports in 55 countries, warned European Union officials on April 10 that a “systemic” shortage could emerge by early May. Reuters and CNBC reported the group urged European Union-wide monitoring and emergency coordination before the summer peak. (msn.com; cnbc.com) The immediate problem is not that Europe is running out of planes. It is that jet fuel, a refined oil product also called kerosene in Europe, reaches many airports through supply chains tied to Gulf exports and seaborne deliveries. (euronews.com; eia.gov) The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman, and the United States Energy Information Administration said it carried about 20 million barrels a day in 2024, or more than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. The International Energy Agency said only 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day of pipeline capacity can bypass the strait. (eia.gov; iea.org) Europe’s warning is landing just before the busiest flying months. Airports and airlines typically build schedules and fuel contracts for late spring and summer well in advance, so a supply shock in April can squeeze deliveries, raise prices, and force rationing before passengers see formal cancellations. (cnbc.com; businesstravelnewseurope.com) Travel coverage on April 12 said summer trips still look “stable for now,” with no broad wave of airline schedule cuts yet announced. That same reporting said a longer disruption or a wider Iran war could still push fares higher and reduce flights later in the season. (usatoday.com) The concern has grown because Europe’s fuel system has become less flexible since Russian oil-product flows were disrupted by sanctions and trade shifts after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. That left Europe more reliant on imports from the Middle East, India, and the United States for products including aviation fuel. (politico.eu; opis.com) Not every route or airport would be hit the same way. Larger hubs with stronger storage and supply contracts may be able to absorb short-term disruption better than smaller airports, while carriers can also trim frequencies, tanker extra fuel on some flights, or shift aircraft to protect core routes. (nytimes.com; cnbc.com) European traffic was already expected to grow in 2026, according to Eurocontrol forecasts, which means demand was rising before the fuel warning arrived. If the strait reopens soon, the industry may get through the summer with higher costs more than outright disruption; if it stays constrained into May, airport groups say the buffer runs out fast. (eurocontrol.int; ansperformance.eu; nytimes.com)