Ocean rates to stay volatile

Ocean shipping never really got back to “normal” after the Red Sea crisis, and the new warning from DHL is that 2026 may look less like a crash in cargo volumes and more like a year of surprise detours, fuel shocks, and price swings that keep importers guessing week to week. DHL’s April 2026 market update says rates are likely to stay high and volatile through the rest of the year because Middle East conflict has hit ship movement, oil prices, and port operations at the same time. (portcalls.com) The immediate problem is not just one blocked route. PortCalls, citing DHL, says Persian Gulf port calls have been disrupted, more than 100 vessels were stuck, and cargo has been pushed into alternative ports that are already congested. (portcalls.com) When ships cannot unload where they planned, the whole container system starts missing pieces. DHL says empty containers are no longer flowing back from the Gulf to Asia on schedule, which creates equipment shortages for the factories that need those boxes for the next export cycle. (portcalls.com) Fuel is the second punch. Drewry said on April 2 that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, which carries nearly 20% of global oil, tightened bunker fuel availability, pushed prices higher, and led carriers to prepare emergency fuel surcharges on container shipments. (drewry.co.uk) That is why even routes far from the Gulf are getting more expensive. Xeneta said on April 1 that spot rates from the Far East to North Europe were up 31% since late February, Far East to the Mediterranean were up 30%, and Far East to the United States West Coast was up 29%, even though that Pacific route is thousands of miles from the conflict zone. (xeneta.com) The reason a fight near one chokepoint hits a ship headed somewhere else is that liner shipping works like a flight network. Xeneta said congestion in the Middle East spilled into Asian transshipment hubs such as Singapore, Port Klang, and Tanjung Pelepas, which are the relay stations that connect cargo flows bound for Europe and the United States. (xeneta.com) This is happening on top of a system that was already stretched by longer voyages. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said rerouting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope cut Suez traffic sharply, lifted global vessel ton-mile demand by 3%, and raised container ship demand by 12% because ships had to spend more time at sea to move the same goods. (unctad.org) Longer trips also turn every container into a slower, more expensive asset. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said a Far East to Europe voyage on a 20,000 to 24,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit vessel can add about $400,000 in carbon costs alone under the European Union Emissions Trading System when ships take the longer route. (unctad.org) There is new ship capacity coming, but not enough to erase the disruption. DHL says nominal fleet growth should be about 3% in 2026, yet effective capacity is still being reduced by port congestion and continuing Suez detours, while the bigger wave of new vessels is not expected to show up meaningfully until 2027. (portcalls.com) That is why the market can look calm on an index and still feel unstable to actual importers. Drewry’s World Container Index was flat at $2,287 per 40-foot container on April 2, but the same update said carriers were pushing emergency bunker surcharges and expected spot rates to rise further in the coming weeks. (drewry.co.uk) The split in forecasts comes down to timing. Xeneta’s 2026 outlook, based on October 2025 assumptions, said global average spot rates could fall 25% in 2026 if there is no large-scale return to Red Sea transits, while DHL’s April 2026 update says fresh conflict and fuel disruption are keeping rates elevated right now. (xeneta.com) (portcalls.com) For retailers and manufacturers, that means the real risk is not empty shelves from a total collapse in shipping. It is paying one price when the purchase order is cut, another when fuel surcharges land, and a third when the cargo misses its first port and has to be rerouted through a congested backup. (xeneta.com) (portcalls.com)