Chicago poll finds Americans wary of China

China is the rival Americans worry about most. But they also do not want a full economic break. That is the tension hanging over Donald Trump’s Beijing trip this week — voters want toughness, but they also want cheaper goods and a stable trading relationship. The new Chicago Council/NPR/Ipsos polling makes that contradiction pretty plain, and the courts have made it more than a messaging problem by limiting one of Trump’s favorite tools. ### What changed this week? Trump traveled to Beijing on Tuesday, May 12, for his first China trip of his second term and a summit with Xi Jinping. The immediate backdrop is trade — especially tariffs — but the timing matters because the public mood is now clearer and Trump’s legal room to maneuver is smaller than it was a few months ago. (nprillinois.org) ### What do Americans actually think about China? Americans still see China mainly as an economic challenger, not just a military one. The poll frames China as a country many Americans think is seeking global dominance, but the same survey also shows people are not eager for a clean break. In other words, the public view is hawkish in tone and pragmatic in substance. (nprillinois.org) ### Where does the contradiction show up? Tariffs. Majorities say tariffs on Chinese imports have been bad for both countries — 72% say bad for China’s economy and 66% say bad for the U.S. economy. There is also support for a deal that lowers tariffs if China increases purchases of American agricultural goods. That is a pretty specific sign that many voters prefer bargaining to escalation. (nprillinois.org) ### So do people want lower tariffs? Often, yes — but with conditions. The survey says majorities would favor tariff reductions tied to larger Chinese purchases of U.S. farm products, which is basically the public saying: be tough, but get something concrete back. That is not the same as endorsing a trade war for its own sake. (globalaffairs.org) ### Why does the Supreme Court matter here? Because on February 20, 2026, the Court said Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. That ruling did not erase every tariff tool in the federal toolbox, but it did knock out the broad emergency-power route Trump had leaned on. Think of it as taking away the biggest hammer right before a negotiation where everyone expected hammer-swinging. (globalaffairs.org) ### Does that mean Trump has no leverage? No. Other authorities still exist, including tariff powers under different statutes. But those routes are narrower, slower, and usually more procedurally constrained. So even if Trump wants to project maximum pressure, the legal system is now forcing more discipline and more justification. (wilmerhale.com) ### What is the political catch? Republicans are not fully unified. The Chicago Council write-up says MAGA Republicans are much more likely to see tariff policy as a success, while other Republicans are less convinced. That matters because China policy often gets described as one-way tougher over time, but the coalition behind “tougher” starts to wobble once higher prices and tradeoffs become concrete. (kpmg.com) ### What should we watch in the Xi meeting? Watch for a deal shape, not a showdown shape. If the summit produces anything meaningful, it will probably look like managed de-escalation — tariff relief tied to purchases, access, or other narrow concessions — rather than a giant new tariff burst. The public seems ready for that, and the courts may have made it the practical option anyway. (globalaffairs.org) The bottom line is simple. Americans are wary of China, but they are also wary of paying for that rivalry at the checkout line. Trump is heading into Beijing with public support for toughness, but not for unlimited economic pain — and with less unilateral tariff power than before. (nprillinois.org)