OPEC+ May Boost Oil Output
OPEC+ is reportedly considering a larger-than-expected oil output boost to stabilize global energy markets amid the escalating Iran conflict. Key producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already started increasing exports. The move aims to head off a major price spike and supply disruptions that could threaten global economic growth.
The potential OPEC+ output increase comes as US-Israeli strikes on Iran ignited fears of a wider conflict that could disrupt a significant portion of global oil supply. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have reportedly warned tankers against passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about 20% of the world's oil consumption. In February 2026, even before the latest escalation, Saudi Arabia had already increased its crude shipments to approximately 7.3 million barrels per day, the highest level since April 2023. This was seen as a contingency measure in anticipation of potential supply disruptions. The United Arab Emirates has also been increasing its oil exports. Analysts predict that a prolonged disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices above $100 a barrel. Financial markets are already bracing for a significant jump, with US crude oil expected to rise by 9% when trading resumes. This is despite the fact that OPEC+ had already agreed on Sunday to a larger-than-planned production increase. The spare production capacity of OPEC+ is largely concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which together hold about 2.5 million barrels a day in reserve, according to the International Energy Agency. However, some analysts believe this figure might be an overestimation. The cartel has about 4.5 million barrels per day of total spare capacity based on January 2026 levels.
