Confidence is falling
- Consumer confidence is weakening across major markets and U.S. retail spending fell in March. - Eurozone flash consumer confidence dropped to -20.6 in April, while U.S. retail spending declined about 1% in March. - Weaker confidence makes diners more selective and increases appetite for clear, bounded recommendations at the table. ( )
Consumers in the United States and Europe turned more cautious in April, even as official U.S. retail sales data showed spending still rising. (ec.europa.eu) (census.gov) The European Commission’s flash consumer confidence reading for the euro area fell to -20.6 in April from -16.3 in March, based on surveys collected from April 1 to April 21. The same release said confidence in the wider European Union fell 4.0 points month over month. (ec.europa.eu 1) (ec.europa.eu 2) In the United States, the Census Bureau said advance retail and food services sales rose 1.7% in March to $752.1 billion, up 4.0% from March 2025. That contradicts earlier reports that March spending fell about 1%. (census.gov 1) (census.gov 2) Confidence and spending are not the same measure. Confidence surveys track how households feel about their finances and the economy, while retail sales count what shoppers actually spent at stores, restaurants, and online. (oecd.org) (census.gov) That split widened in April. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 47.6 from 53.3 in March, with current conditions at 50.1 and expectations at 46.1. (umich.edu 1) (umich.edu 2) Michigan survey director Joanne Hsu said sentiment dropped across age, income, and political groups, while one-year expected business conditions fell about 20%. The survey said consumers also reported more concern about high prices and weaker asset values. (umich.edu) The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development defines consumer confidence as a signal of future household consumption and saving, not a direct read on current purchases. Its March interim outlook said the Middle East conflict had disrupted energy and commodity markets and raised volatility. (oecd.org) (oecd.org) For restaurants, that usually shows up before a broad collapse in spending data. When households feel less secure, they tend to trade down, delay discretionary outings, and respond more to fixed-price menus, specials, and other clearly bounded offers; that last point is an inference from how confidence indicators are used to anticipate consumption behavior. (oecd.org) (umich.edu) The next test comes quickly. The University of Michigan scheduled its final April 2026 sentiment release for April 24, one day after these readings, and that update will show whether April’s drop held through the month. (umich.edu)
