BoC set to hold amid oil shock
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate today, with policymakers balancing weak domestic data against upside inflation risk from surging oil linked to the Middle East conflict — a truly clouded outlook. That ambiguity means markets are pricing ‘data dependence’ from the BoC rather than a clear path to cuts, keeping rate relief uncertain for mortgage borrowers and lenders. (ca.finance.yahoo.com) (globalnews.ca)
Overnight-index derivatives put the implied post‑meeting overnight rate at roughly 2.25% for March 18, with the market assigning only a low single‑digit probability of a hike or cut at that meeting. (rateprobability.com) A Reuters poll taken March 10–13 found all 33 surveyed economists expected the BoC to hold on March 18 and 25 of 33 (76%) expected rates to remain unchanged through 2026. (msn.com) Brent crude briefly topped US$100 in early March after the Iran conflict pushed global benchmarks up more than 20% year‑to‑date, and the IEA warned the war created the largest‑ever oil supply disruption. (aljazeera.com) February MLS® activity showed 30,244 homes traded nationally, MLS® HPI fell 0.6% month‑over‑month and was down 4.8% year‑over‑year, while new listings dropped 3.9% versus January. (crea.ca) Bank‑prime sits around 4.45% and posted five‑year fixed offers commonly trade between about 3.7% and 4.5%, with variable products clustering in the low‑to‑mid 4% band — a spread profile that keeps mortgage cash‑flow sensitive to both CORRA and lender funding moves. (iknowtoronto.com) Swap and futures curves show a policy path largely anchored near 2.25% into the spring and only modest odds of cuts this year, a pricing pattern that compresses the near‑term window for meaningful rate relief on renewals. (rateprobability.com)
