Trump heads to China amid tariff uncertainty

The trip to Beijing is about tariffs on paper. But the real story is that Washington and Beijing are trying to stop a shaky truce from breaking while a bigger geopolitical crisis keeps eating the agenda. Trump leaves for a May 14–15 summit with Xi Jinping after months of trade friction, rare-earth pressure, and a wider Iran war that now hangs over almost every major diplomatic conversation. Expectations are low for a grand bargain. The more realistic goal is to keep the relationship from getting worse. (usnews.com) ### Why is this summit happening now? Trump departs Tuesday for Beijing for what could be the first of four meetings with Xi this year, and it would be the first U.S. presidential visit to China since Trump’s 2017 trip in his first term. The meeting had been delayed earlier this year after the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran changed the diplomatic calendar. So this is not a clean, trade-only summit. It is a rescheduled meeting landing in a much messier moment. (usnews.com) ### What is still unresolved on trade? Plenty. The two sides appear headed toward extending a trade truce first reached last October, but the harder disputes are still there — tariffs, Chinese rare-earth export curbs, U.S. tech restrictions, and the broader fight over AI and electric-vehicle supply chains. Trump has talked up the relationship as profitable for the U.S., but the underlying trade numbers point to a relationship that is still shrinking and rerouting rather than normalizing. (usnews.com) ### Why do rare earths matter so much? Because this is one of Beijing’s strongest pressure points. Rare earths and magnets are essential for defense systems, electronics, and industrial manufacturing, and China has shown it can tighten supply when it wants leverage. One of the big questions hanging over the summit is whether Beijing will extend a temporary pause on even tougher controls. The catch is that even with a truce under discussion, shipments have still been constrained. So the leverage never really disappeared. (cfr.org) ### Is Trump going to Beijing from a position of strength? Not really. The administration can point to a lower bilateral goods deficit with China — $202.1 billion in 2025 — but a lot of that reflects falling trade volumes and supply-chain diversion, not some clean U.S. win. China bought nearly $50 billion less in American products last year than it did in 2022, and the U.S. now imports more goods from Taiwan than from China. That is a real shift, but it also shows how much the old trade relationship has hollowed out. (ustr.gov) ### So what does Trump actually want? Basically, visible wins that he can describe as proof the relationship is stabilizing. That could mean extending the truce, setting up a standing economic channel, and maybe getting China to buy more soybeans, beef, or Boeing aircraft. Boeing matters here because its CEO, Kelly Ortberg, is expected to attend, and China has not placed a major Boeing order in years. But none of that changes the structural fight over technology, industrial policy, or Taiwan. (usnews.com) ### Why is Iran crowding out the economic agenda? Because both governments now see the war as a global economic risk, not just a regional conflict. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already said Iran will be on the agenda, and analysts expect it to consume a lot of summit time. If the talks help cool that conflict, markets and multinational companies would treat that as a bigger win than a narrow tariff tweak. Turns out the fastest way to steady trade may be to steady the oil route first. (cnbc.com) ### What is China trying to get out of this? Time and room. Beijing wants to slow further escalation, protect access to global markets, and keep building out its technological and industrial base while the U.S. focuses on symbolic deliverables. China also arrives with confidence because it has already shown it can answer tariff pressure with export controls and selective economic pain. That does not mean Xi has all the leverage, but it does mean Trump is not walking into a 2017-style spectacle with $250 billion in splashy deal announcements. (cfr.org) ### Bottom line? This summit looks less like a breakthrough and more like damage control. If Trump comes home with a truce extension, a few purchase pledges, and continued talks, the White House will call it progress. But the deeper story is that the U.S.-China relationship is still being held together by temporary patches while the real disputes — tech, minerals, security, and trust — keep getting harder. (usnews.com)