Commodities going haywire
Brent crude has climbed above $105 and is being watched toward $108–$112 while WTI trades around $92.88 — at the same time gold plunged to about $4,451 and silver to ~$69, with nat‑gas roughly $2.97, a breakdown of normal correlations ( ). In India, domestic gold jumped 1.52% to ₹141,615, silver rose 2.55% to ₹225,477 and lead futures gained ~2.02% even as local crude prices eased ~1.18% — a real‑time example of how regional dynamics are diverging from global energy moves (x.com).
Renewed Middle East risk premia drove trader positioning after Iran signalled moves affecting the Strait of Hormuz, with market reports and brokerage notes pointing to that as a key trigger for tighter crude supply expectations. (energyconnects.com) The International Energy Agency estimated March supply curtailments were on the order of roughly 8 million barrels per day, a figure participants cited when pricing in a sustained premium on Brent and other benchmarks. (iea.org) OPEC+ paperwork shows members agreed on March 1 to begin unwinding part of earlier voluntary adjustments and to implement a roughly 206,000 barrels‑per‑day change in April, a step markets called too small to offset current Middle East disruptions. (opec.org) Precious‑metals desks said the recent sharp correction was amplified by notes from Natixis and others warning of central‑bank selling and swap operations — reports that coincided with a rapid liquidation phase after an extended 2025 rally. (kitco.com) Silver’s intramonth volatility has been extreme, with the contract down roughly 26% year‑to‑date for March and repeatedly testing rebounds after forced selling episodes, according to price trackers and market commentary. (statmuse.com) Indian onshore markets diverged from international energy moves as MCX bullion futures ran into multi‑session rallies (intraday highs above ₹144,000 were recorded) while the rupee weakened toward the mid‑90s per dollar, amplifying local bullion demand and import costs. (livemint.com) U.S. natural‑gas front‑month futures were trading below recent peaks as milder weather and storage flows eased near‑term pressure on the curve, leaving gas markets largely detached from the oil‑driven risk re‑pricing. (google.com)
