AWS AI growth vs weak stock
Amazon's CEO says AI could push AWS toward $600 billion in annual sales by 2036, but Amazon's stock has underperformed the S&P this year as heavy AI and automation spending pressures near‑term returns. The split — massive long‑term cloud opportunity paired with short‑term market skepticism — is feeding tenant demand for automation‑ready but cost‑efficient space. (marketscreener.com) (indexbox.io)
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told employees on March 17, 2026 that AI could push AWS to about $600 billion in annual sales by 2036, roughly double a prior $300 billion internal projection. (money.usnews.com)) AWS produced $128.7 billion of segment sales in 2025 and $35.6 billion in Q4 2025, giving the unit a sizable revenue base to scale from. (ir.aboutamazon.com)) Amazon signaled it will front-load infrastructure for that scale — management flagged roughly $200 billion of capital spending tied to AI and data‑center buildout — and AWS reported a substantial multi‑quarter customer backlog as cloud customers committed capacity. (money.usnews.com)) Investors punished the timing and scale of the spend: year‑to‑date through early March 2026 AMZN’s total‑return performance lagged the S&P 500 (AMZN YTD about -9.2% vs. SPY about -2.3% in the cited comparison). (financecharts.com)) Shares plunged in after‑hours trading following the Q4 2025 print and the $200 billion capex guide, with reports of an after‑hours drop in the double‑digit range on Feb. 5, 2026 as markets digested the near‑term margin and cash‑flow tradeoffs. (money.usnews.com)) Logistics landlords are already seeing the demand signal: Prologis reported U.S. logistics rents fell 4.5% year‑over‑year in 2025 as occupiers chased lower‑cost locations, while brokerage research noted occupiers increasingly prioritize automation‑ready, high‑power buildings when choosing space. (supplychaindive.com))
