Fertilizer and food at risk
U.N. food and agriculture agencies warn that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz crisis could disrupt fertilizer and energy exports and trigger global food‑security problems. Officials say such disruptions would raise input costs, squeeze crop yields, and produce delayed effects on planting and harvest cycles. (reuters.com, bloomberg.com)
A prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push up fertilizer and fuel costs in time to hit planting decisions and food prices later this year. (fao.org) The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said on April 13 that ships carrying key farm inputs need to resume moving through the strait quickly to avoid a new spike in food inflation. FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero said poorer countries are most exposed because missed planting windows can turn into lower output in the next harvest. (fao.org) The strait is the narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. United Nations officials said on March 26 that it normally carries 35 percent of global crude oil flows, about 20 million barrels a day, 30 percent of fertilizer trade and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas. (news.un.org) Fertilizer is the nutrient mix farmers buy to keep yields up, and natural gas is the main feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer. When fuel and fertilizer both jump at once, Torero said farmers face a “double shock” that can cut application rates, change crop choices and reduce yields in the next season. (news.un.org) FAO said April was already bringing pressure and that May could be worse as farmers decide what to plant and whether to shift land toward biofuels if oil prices stay high. The agency urged governments not to impose export restrictions on energy or fertilizers, arguing that trade curbs worsened past food-price spikes. (fao.org), (bloomberg.com) The risk is not just to Gulf countries. Torero said Sri Lanka and Bangladesh face immediate pressure because rice harvests are underway now, while African countries that rely on imported fertilizer are vulnerable before planting windows close. (news.un.org) Large farm exporters are exposed too. Torero said Argentina, Brazil and the United States would also feel the shock, and The Fertilizer Institute said global price moves can raise costs for American farmers even when the United States is not directly importing every product from the Gulf. (news.un.org), (tfi.org) The Fertilizer Institute said nearly half of global urea exports and nearly half of global sulfur exports originate in countries west of the strait and move through it. It also said about 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas passes through the corridor, tying fertilizer costs directly to the energy market. (tfi.org) FAO said the March Food Price Index was still relatively stable because cereal supplies remained ample, but officials warned that food markets often react with a lag when the disruption starts with inputs instead of finished crops. The agency is pushing emergency financing for import-dependent countries before missed deliveries turn into smaller harvests. (fao.org) Torero’s warning was blunt: the world is already in an input crisis, and the next few weeks will decide whether it hardens into a broader food crisis. (fao.org)
