Fraser warns 1.5m homes impossible
- Fraser of Allander said Scottish Labour’s plan to build 125,000 homes by 2031 is not credible at current delivery rates and workforce capacity. - The institute said the pledge implies 30,000 homes in year five alone, far above Scotland’s latest annual output of 17,336 completions. - Scotland’s latest official figures show starts and completions falling as the election campaign turns on housing delivery. (gov.scot)
The Fraser of Allander Institute said Scottish Labour’s pledge to build 125,000 homes by 2031 does not match Scotland’s current building capacity. (fraserofallander.org) In its April 14 manifesto analysis, the institute said Labour’s housing target would require 30,000 homes in the fifth year of a five-year parliament. (fraserofallander.org) Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar announced the target on February 27, alongside plans for a Housing Investment Bank, Housing Development Trusts and 9,000 new apprenticeships. (scottishlabour.org.uk) The Fraser of Allander analysis said the ambition was “well-directed” because 14 of Scotland’s 32 local authorities have declared housing emergencies. It said the problem was delivery. (fraserofallander.org) Scotland’s latest official housing statistics show 17,336 homes were completed in the 12 months to December 2025, down 13% on the previous year. Starts fell 6% to 14,999. (cih.org) (gov.scot) Earlier Scottish Government data for the year to September 2025 showed 18,347 completions and 14,846 starts, with private-sector starts at their lowest level for that period since 2013. (gov.scot) The construction workforce is another constraint. The Construction Industry Training Board said Scotland will need more than 17,950 extra construction workers over five years and warned unfilled vacancies could delay projects and raise costs. (citb.co.uk) Scottish Labour says it would train the workforce needed to deliver homes “at pace and scale” by prioritising construction skills within those 9,000 apprenticeships. (scottishlabour.org.uk) The same Fraser of Allander review said Labour’s manifesto, like others in the Scottish election, often set out ambitions without enough detail on funding, sequencing or trade-offs. (fraserofallander.org 1) (fraserofallander.org 2) Housing is now one of the cleanest tests of that gap: parties are promising faster delivery while the latest statistics still show fewer homes being started and finished. (gov.scot) (cih.org)
