Europe flights face fuel crunch

Europe’s summer flight schedule is under pressure because the continent does not make enough jet fuel at home and a Middle East shock has tightened imports. (reuters.com) The immediate warning came on April 15, when airlines and airports said a deeper fuel squeeze could force groundings or trimmed schedules in the peak holiday season. Reuters reported carriers were already planning around tighter supply after the war shock tied to Iran disrupted a market Europe increasingly depends on. (reuters.com) Europe’s vulnerability was building before this month. The International Air Transport Association said four European refineries stopped crude processing in 2025, removing about 400,000 barrels a day of capacity, and said Europe relied on imports for about one-third of jet fuel demand in 2025. (iata.org, iata.org) Jet fuel is not like electricity that can be rerouted instantly. It has to be refined, shipped, stored at airports and delivered on time, so when refinery capacity shrinks and trade routes are hit, airlines lose room to improvise. (iata.org) The timing is difficult because Europe’s flight market is already full. Eurocontrol said 2025 traffic returned to 2019 levels at 11.05 million flights, and it still expects about 11.3 million flights across the European Civil Aviation Conference area in 2026 even after cutting its forecast following the late-February Middle East escalation. (eurocontrol.int, eurocontrol.int) That leaves airlines trying to absorb higher fuel costs in a business with thin margins. The International Air Transport Association said fuel represented about 30 percent of airline costs in 2024, while its latest weekly monitor put the global average jet fuel price at $197.83 a barrel last week. (iata.org, iata.org) Passengers are already seeing the effect in nearby travel markets. Gulf News reported on April 14 that travel agents in the United Arab Emirates were delaying bookings because fares had jumped and seats had tightened, with Musafir.com’s Raheesh Babu saying some Indian carrier frequencies had fallen from about 40 flights a day on certain sectors to fewer than 10. (gulfnews.com) Airlines also face a second pressure point in Europe’s fuel system. Under the European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation rules, fuel suppliers at European Union airports must blend in sustainable aviation fuel, starting at 2 percent, while carriers must refuel enough for the flight instead of tankering extra fuel from elsewhere. (transport.ec.europa.eu, transport.ec.europa.eu) The bigger issue is not one bad week in oil markets but a supply chain that had less slack before the crisis began. If fuel flows stabilize, Europe may get through summer with higher fares and fewer seats; if they tighten again, the warning from carriers about cuts and groundings moves from contingency planning into schedules. (reuters.com, iata.org)