Consumers unlikely to see price cuts

U.S. shoppers who paid more during the tariff fight are unlikely to get that money back now that refunds are starting. (forbes.com) (nytimes.com) U.S. Customs and Border Protection opened its CAPE claims portal on April 20 for importers seeking refunds on tariffs the Supreme Court struck down on February 20. The refunds cover duties collected under President Donald Trump’s emergency tariff authority. (usnews.com) (time.com) The agency said more than 330,000 importers paid about $166 billion on more than 53 million shipments, though the first phase does not cover every entry. As of April 14, 56,497 importers had completed registration and were eligible for about $127 billion, including interest. (usnews.com) (finance.yahoo.com) The refund goes to the importer of record, which is the company or broker that officially paid the duty at the border. Consumers who absorbed higher prices at checkout are not part of that direct payment chain. (forbes.com) (time.com) Economists say that matters because tariffs tend to raise prices faster than refunds pull them back down. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in February that tariffs added 0.7% to inflation over the prior 10 months and would still lift costs by another 0.1% in 2026. (forbes.com) Corporate finance chiefs are signaling the same thing. In CNBC’s April survey, 12 of 25 chief financial officers said their companies would apply for refunds, and none said they planned to directly share that money with customers. (cnbc.com) Some of the biggest projected checks would go to major retailers, not households. Citi estimated Walmart could receive $10.2 billion, Target $2.2 billion and Nike $1 billion. (cnbc.com) (forbes.com) Even companies expecting large refunds are warning investors not to expect fast payments. Customs and Border Protection says approved claims will take 60 to 90 days, while many chief financial officers told CNBC they expect a year or more. (usnews.com) (cnbc.com) The opening of the portal settles one question — businesses can start asking for their money back — but not the one shoppers care about most. The refund process is built to repay importers, and the price increases consumers already paid are likely to stay where they landed. (usnews.com) (nytimes.com)