CIS poll projects Moreno's PP‑A within reach of an absolute majority in Andalusian election
- Andalusia’s public pollster CENTRA put Juanma Moreno’s PP at 42.4% and 53-56 seats on May 5, leaving it one seat from solo control. - The threshold is 55 seats in the 109-seat chamber. PSOE falls to 25-27 seats, while Vox rises to 17-19. (elpais.com) - That matters because Moreno already won outright in 2022. This poll says he may keep power, but with less cushion. (elpais.com)
Andalusian politics is suddenly about a very small number — 55. That is the line for an absolute majority in the region’s 109-seat parliament, and a new CENTRA pre-election poll puts Juanma Moreno’s PP right on top of it, or just below it. The survey still looks like the clear favorite, but the question is no longer whether he wins. It is whether he can govern alone again. ### Wait — is this the CIS or something else? The headline shorthand is a little sloppy. This latest poll is from CENTRA, the Andalusian government’s own study center — often nicknamed the “Andalusian CIS” because it plays a similar polling role at the regional level. The actual national CIS also published a pre-election study on April 24, based on 8,017 interviews conducted from April 10 to 18. That CIS study used a different model and sample window, but it pointed in the same direction: a PP lead big enough to make solo rule plausible, even if not guaranteed. ### What does the new poll actually say? The cleanest number is this one: PP 42.4%, PSOE 20.1%, Vox 14.4%, Por Andalucía 7.9%, Adelante Andalucía 6.9%. In seats, that becomes 53-56 for the PP, 25-27 for the Socialists, 17-19 for Vox, 4-7 for Por Andalucía, and 5 for Adelante. That means the right bloc — PP plus Vox — still has a very comfortable edge, but Moreno is trying to avoid needing Vox at all. One seat either way could decide whether this becomes a one-party government or a more awkward parliament. ### Why is 55 such a big deal? Because 55 is the magic number for full control. With 55 or more seats, Moreno can pass budgets and govern without bargaining for outside support. Below that, he is still likely to remain president if the PP stays far ahead, but the politics get messier. Every vote matters more. Vox gets leverage. Small parties matter more. Basically, 54 seats is still a win, but it is a different kind of win. The poll is interesting. In 2022, Moreno’s PP won 58 seats and 43.1% of the vote, a historic result in a region long dominated by the PSOE. This new CENTRA poll puts him slightly below that seat total and roughly in the same vote range. So the picture is not “collapse.” It is more like controlled slippage. He still leads by a lot, but the cushion looks thinner than it did four years ago. PSOE’s problem is not just that it trails. It is that it still looks stuck near its post-2022 floor. The poll gives María Jesús Montero’s party 25 to 27 seats, which would be below the 30 it won in 2022. That is rough for a party trying to sell a reset under a nationally prominent leader. The gap with Moreno is huge — more than 22 points in vote share in this survey — and that keeps the election from feeling truly competitive at the top. Not exactly a spoiler — more a lurking fallback. Vox is projected to gain seats, moving from 14 now to 17-19 in the poll. But the key thing is that Vox still does not overtake the PSOE regionwide. Its importance comes from arithmetic, not momentum alone. If the PP lands below 55, Vox becomes the obvious partner or support party. If the PP reaches 55, Vox can make noise but not demands. That is the fork in the road. The fight is over the margin. This election now looks less like a contest over who wins Andalusia and more like a test of whether the PP can keep one-party control after its 2022 breakthrough. The latest poll says yes is possible — but no longer comfortable.
