Chip exports stuck in bureaucracy
Shipments of high-end AI chips to China are being delayed not by policy bans but by slow licence processing inside U.S. export offices, creating an effective supply chokepoint for vendors and customers. Reports say approvals for Nvidia and AMD exports have stalled amid staffing turnover at the Bureau of Industry and Security, even as suppliers and equipment makers like ASML raise guidance and demand for advanced tools remains strong ( ).
U.S. approvals for Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices artificial intelligence chip exports to China are stretching into months inside the Commerce Department, even when the shipments are not newly banned. (finance.yahoo.com) Bloomberg, in a report republished by Yahoo Finance on April 14, said the Bureau of Industry and Security has lost nearly 20% of its rulemaking and licensing staff over the past year. The same report said tighter review by senior officials has slowed decisions on licenses for China and the Middle East. (finance.yahoo.com) The Bureau of Industry and Security is the Commerce Department office that reviews exports of “dual-use” goods, meaning products with civilian and military uses. Federal rules say license applications should be resolved within 90 calendar days after registration, though the agency can consult other departments during review. (ecfr.gov) Transport Topics, citing Bloomberg, reported on April 10 that approvals for foreign shipments have been taking several months and that an industry letter described billions of dollars in export backlogs, including goods bound for U.S. allies. The same report said the number of processed licenses across industries fell by roughly 25% last year, according to people familiar with the data. (ttnews.com) The immediate bottleneck is administrative, not a new published ban. Companies can have a product that still fits the rules on paper, then wait because the office that signs off on licenses is short-staffed and handling a larger pile of cases. (finance.yahoo.com; ttnews.com) That is colliding with a market that is still expanding. On April 15, ASML said first-quarter net sales were 8.8 billion euros and net profit was 2.8 billion euros, both above LSEG estimates, and raised its 2026 sales outlook to 36 billion to 40 billion euros from 34 billion to 39 billion euros. (cnbc.com) ASML Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said demand for chips is outpacing supply and customers are accelerating capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond. ASML matters here because it sells the lithography tools used to make the most advanced semiconductors, so its orders and guidance are watched as a readout on industry demand. (cnbc.com) The policy backdrop has also been shifting. Transport Topics, again citing Bloomberg, said the Trump administration scrapped a late-Biden proposal for a broader chip-export framework and then withdrew its own replacement effort, leaving companies waiting for both case-by-case approvals and clearer long-term rules. (ttnews.com) The Bureau of Industry and Security has not publicly changed the basic licensing process in the export-control regulations, and its website still directs companies to file and track applications through the SNAP-R system. For chipmakers and Chinese buyers, that means the choke point now sits less in the text of the rules than in how fast Washington can process them. (bis.gov; snapr.bis.gov; ecfr.gov)
