Trump eyes Taiwan call

Donald Trump said on May 20 that he would speak with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, opening the possibility of the first direct contact between a sitting U.S. president and a Taiwanese president since Washington switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979. Trump made the remark after returning from a state visit to China, where Taiwan was a central issue in his talks with President Xi Jinping. Reuters reported on May 22 that no concrete plans for a call had yet been made, citing four people familiar with the matter. Beijing has already warned Washington that such a move could damage ties and undo progress made during Trump’s trip. ### Why would a Trump-Lai call be such a break with precedent? The United States shifted diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, and U.S. and Taiwanese presidents have not spoken directly since then, according to Reuters. That history is why Trump’s statement was treated in Washington, Taipei and Beijing as more than routine leader-to-leader contact. (usnews.com) Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews, “I’ll speak to him. I speak to everybody,” when asked about Lai. Reuters reported that this was the second time in a week Trump had said he intended to speak with Lai, dispelling early speculation that his first reference had been a slip. ### What does Beijing object to so strongly? (usnews.com) China’s government claims Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control, Reuters reported. Beijing opposes official contact between foreign governments and Taipei because it treats such engagement as a challenge to its sovereignty claim. (usnews.com) China’s foreign ministry said on May 21 that the United States should “handle the Taiwan issue with extreme caution and stop sending wrong signals to the separatist forces of Taiwan independence,” according to a Reuters explainer. Reuters also reported on May 22 that Beijing had warned Washington a Trump-Lai call could damage bilateral ties and unwind progress from the recent state visit. (usnews.com) ### Why are analysts focused on military drills rather than only diplomacy? China has repeatedly answered high-level U.S.-Taiwan contact with military activity around the island. Reuters’ May 11 timeline noted that China held three days of drills around Taiwan in April 2023 after then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen returned from meeting then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles. (usnews.com) In August 2022, China launched large-scale exercises after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, including missile launches and operations around Taiwan, according to contemporaneous reporting and later tracking by analysts at CSIS. In May 2024, China began the “Joint Sword-2024A” drills three days after Lai’s inauguration speech, which Beijing denounced. (usnews.com) Those precedents do not prove what China would do after a Trump-Lai call, but they show the pattern analysts are watching: Beijing has often used military drills, naval deployments and air activity to answer symbolic political contact with Taipei. That is an inference from the record of Chinese responses in 2022, 2023 and 2024. (aljazeera.com) ### How does the arms-sale question fit into this? Trump linked the possible conversation to decisions on Taiwan’s defenses. Reuters reported that after his trip to Beijing, Trump said he had not decided whether to proceed with a weapons sale worth up to $14 billion to Taiwan. Taiwan has tried to frame any direct contact around deterrence and stability. (usnews.com) Lai said on May 20 that, if he got the chance to speak with Trump, he would say his government was committed to maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and that China was undermining peace through its military buildup, Reuters reported. Taiwan Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Ming-chi said on May 18 that Taipei would welcome such a call if Trump wanted one. (usnews.com) ### Has the call actually been arranged? Four people familiar with the matter told Reuters on May 22 that U.S. and Taiwanese officials had been in touch about the prospect of a call, but no concrete plans had been put in place. Reuters said Trump’s initial comments surprised officials in both Washington and Taipei. (usnews.com) The next marker is whether the White House or Taiwan’s presidential office confirms a date, and whether Trump ties that announcement to the pending arms-sale decision he has said could reach $14 billion. As of May 22, neither side had announced a schedule. (usnews.com)