Grocery prices climb again

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on May 12 that its food-at-home index rose 0.7% in April from March, the largest monthly increase for groceries since mid-2022. The broader food index rose 0.5% in the month, while the all-items Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. (bls.gov) Over 12 months, grocery prices were up 2.9% and overall food prices were up 3.2%, according to the agency. (forbes.com) Forbes said on May 15 that an 11-item basket of staples it tracked cost $73.07 in April, up from $46.95 in June 2020. Its comparison used Bureau of Labor Statistics average-price data for items including bananas, bread, butter, chicken, chips, coffee, eggs, ground beef, orange juice and soda. (bls.gov) The calculation is not an official government basket, but it illustrates how several household staples remain far above pre-pandemic levels. USDA’s Economic Research Service said in its April 24 Food Price Outlook that food-at-home prices for 2026 are forecast to increase 2.4% on average, with a prediction interval of 0.0% to 4.8%. (bls.gov) The same outlook said food prices in March were 2.7% higher than a year earlier and noted that grocery inflation had been flat in March before the April jump. ### Which part of the inflation report hit grocery shoppers? April’s 0.7% increase in food at home was the standout number for supermarket shoppers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said five of the six major grocery-store food group indexes increased in April, led by a 1.3% rise in meats, poultry, fish and eggs and a 1.8% increase in fruits and vegetables. (forbes.com) Beef rose 2.7% in the month, the agency said. The annual grocery inflation rate also accelerated. BLS data showed the 12-month increase for food at home reached 2.9% in April, up from 1.9% in March. Grocery Dive, citing the same government data, said that one-month jump in the annual pace was the largest such increase since May 2022. (ers.usda.gov) ### Why are some staple items still so much higher than in 2020? Forbes’ basket comparison showed the biggest increases came from coffee, up 115%, and orange juice, up 107.6%, between June 2020 and April 2026. Ground beef was up 45.7%, eggs 45.1% and cookies 40%, while bread, butter and chicken also posted double-digit increases. (bls.gov) BLS average-price data support the pattern of elevated staple costs, though item-by-item moves vary. The agency’s public chart tracks current prices for eggs, milk, bread, bananas, ground chuck and gasoline, among other goods, and shows food prices have not returned to 2020 levels even after some categories cooled from earlier peaks. (bls.gov) ### Was gasoline the only reason grocery prices moved higher? Associated Press reported on May 13 that gasoline was only one factor behind April’s grocery increase. Its report said analysts also pointed to tariffs, labor costs and weather-related supply disruptions in categories such as produce and imported foods. (forbes.com) PBS carried the same AP report. ABC News reported that analysts tied part of the jump to an oil shock that lifted diesel costs, which feed into trucking and shipping bills across the food supply chain. Reuters reported separately on May 6 that New York Fed and Federal Reserve officials were watching higher gasoline prices and supply-chain risks as possible sources of more persistent inflation. (bls.gov) ### What are government forecasters saying about the rest of 2026? USDA’s April 24 outlook said seven of the 15 food-at-home categories it tracks are expected to rise faster in 2026 than their 20-year historical average pace. (usnews.com) The agency forecast all-food prices to increase 2.9% this year and restaurant prices to rise 3.6%. The forecast predates the April CPI release, so it does not yet include the latest monthly grocery increase. USDA said its outlook is updated regularly using the most recent Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data available at the time of publication. (abcnews.com) ### When is the next official read on grocery inflation? The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the next Consumer Price Index report, covering May 2026, is scheduled for June 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. USDA’s Food Price Outlook page also continues to post updated forecasts as new CPI and producer-price data arrive. (bls.gov) (ers.usda.gov 1) (ers.usda.gov 2)