Chip‑tool chokepoints tighten

ASML raised its 2026 sales forecast on April 15 after first-quarter results beat its own targets, tying the increase to stronger artificial-intelligence chip demand. (asml.com) The Dutch company reported first-quarter 2026 net sales of €8.8 billion, gross margin of 53.0%, and net income of €2.8 billion. It now expects 2026 sales of €36 billion to €40 billion, with gross margin of 51% to 53%. (asml.com) Lithography is the chip industry’s printing step: light passes through a pattern, then optics shrink that pattern onto a silicon wafer. ASML says its systems project the design through a mask and repeat the image across the wafer layer by layer. (asml.com) For the smallest, most complex chip layers, manufacturers use extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, while older deep ultraviolet tools still handle many other layers. ASML says both EUV and deep ultraviolet systems will be required in parallel for years. (asml.com) That makes ASML unusually hard to route around: Reuters and CNBC both described it this week as the only supplier of EUV lithography systems. The company’s 2025 annual report also highlighted delivery of its first full-specification TWINSCAN EXE:5200B high-numerical-aperture system, the next step in EUV. (reuters.com, cnbc.com, asml.com) ASML told investors in November 2024 that it still saw 2030 annual revenue in a range of about €44 billion to €60 billion. The 2026 upgrade keeps that longer arc intact while bringing nearer-term demand up. (asml.com) The concentration risk is not only technical. CNBC reported on April 15 that ASML shares fell even after the guidance increase because investors were also weighing tighter China restrictions. (cnbc.com) A bipartisan group of United States lawmakers proposed the MATCH Act on April 3 to tighten export controls on chipmaking equipment sold to China, including some tools made by ASML. Reuters reported the draft would also try to align foreign suppliers with United States restrictions. (reuters.com) ASML said on its results call that it can accommodate export controls, even as China rules keep shifting around the business. The company’s new forecast says the bottleneck in advanced chipmaking is still not demand for artificial intelligence chips, but the limited number of companies that can supply the tools to print them. (msn.com, asml.com)