SNP vote down, Reform UK rises

Scotland’s election picture tightened right at the end — not because the SNP suddenly collapsed, but because the opposition vote kept splintering in a new direction. The final polling before Thursday’s Holyrood vote still had John Swinney’s party in front. But it also showed Reform UK turning a noisy rise into something more concrete, especially on the regional list, while Labour looked much weaker than it did a year ago. That matters because Scotland and Wales are now telling the same story — old party loyalties are loosening fast. ### What changed in Scotland? The clearest late snapshot came from Ipsos for STV, published on May 6. It put the SNP on 35% in the constituency vote and 26% on the regional list. Reform was on 15% in constituencies and 19% on the list, with Labour on 17% and 18% respectively. So the headline is simple — the SNP remained first, but Reform had moved into a real contest for second, and Labour was no longer the obvious alternative. (news.stv.tv) ### Why does the list vote matter so much? Holyrood uses two votes. One picks a local constituency MSP. The other is the regional list, which is meant to balance the parliament out. That second vote is where smaller or newer parties can break through faster. So Reform climbing to 19% on the list (news.stv.tv)right. (news.stv.tv) ### Is this really bad news for the SNP? Yes and no. The SNP looked set to stay the largest party by a comfortable margin, and some final projections still had it around 57 seats. But the catch is that this would come with a reduced vote share and still leave it short of an outright majority. In other words, the SNP was leading, but not dominating in the old way. (holyrood.com) ### Why is Labour the party under real pressure? Because Labour’s problem is not just losing to the SNP in Scotland. It is losing its claim to be the default anti-SNP vehicle while also facing a brutal picture in Wales. The final YouGov MRP for ITV Cymru Wales projected Plaid Cymru o(holyrood.com) more than a century. That makes Scotland look less like a one-off and more like part of a broader anti-incumbent revolt. (yougov.com) ### Why is Reform rising in both places? Basically, Reform is benefiting from a fragmented protest vote. In Scotland, it is pulling support from unionist voters who might once have defaulted to Labour or the Conservatives. In Wales, it is feeding on long-running frust(yougov.com) the old big Westminster parties could hold their coalitions together. (news.sky.com) ### Does this mean Reform is about to run Scotland or Wales? No. That is the important limit here. In Scotland, the SNP was still ahead by a lot. In Wales, Plaid rather than Reform looked best placed to finish first. But Reform no longer needs to win outright to change the sys(news.sky.com)ishment politics, and culture-war issues. (news.stv.tv) ### So what is the real story? The real story is not “SNP down” on its own. It is that the UK’s devolved politics now looks fractured in a new way. The SNP can still win Scotland while looking weaker. Labour can still matter while losing authority fast. And Reform can come from outside the old se(news.stv.tv)incumbents. By the final day of campaigning, the evidence pointed to the same answer in both nations — voters were not lining up behind one replacement. They were breaking the map apart.