Inflation keeps affordability central
Economists are warning of a ‘dual inflation headwind’ from tariffs and oil shocks that could keep core inflation elevated into mid‑2026, which means household cost sensitivity will likely persist. For colleges, that reinforces the need to make affordability arguments concrete—savings, short pathways and local options—rather than relying on abstract value claims. (rbc.com, swissinfo.ch)
A year after the White House’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the United States still had a record $1.23 trillion goods trade deficit in 2025, and Royal Bank of Canada says the overall goods-and-services deficit widened by another $8 billion instead of shrinking. (rbc.com) What changed was the route, not the bill. Royal Bank of Canada says imports from China fell 28% in 2025 and China’s share of United States goods imports dropped to 9% from just over 13% in 2024, while deficits with Vietnam, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Mexico, and Taiwan all grew. (rbc.com) Now a second price shock is landing on top of that first one. Swissinfo, citing Bloomberg Economics on April 10, 2026, says fighting tied to Iran has pushed oil prices sharply higher and lifted the expected year-end path of advanced-economy interest rates by about 35 basis points in just three months. (swissinfo.ch) That is the “dual headwind” economists are talking about: tariffs make imported goods costlier, and oil makes transport, utilities, and production costlier. Royal Bank of Canada says those forces can push core inflation and headline inflation up together instead of letting one cool while the other spikes. (rbc.com) The United States was already not back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target before the latest oil jump. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices excluding food and energy were up 2.5% in February 2026 from a year earlier, after a 0.2% monthly increase. (bls.gov) When inflation sticks above target, families do not stop buying; they start editing. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book says it collects reports from all 12 districts on current conditions, and those reports are exactly where shifts in price sensitivity usually show up first in consumer behavior. (federalreserve.gov) That is why colleges cannot lean on broad promises like “education pays off someday” and expect that to close the sale. The federal College Scorecard now centers comparison tools for average annual cost, debt, repayment, and earnings, which is a sign that families are shopping for college the way they shop for a car loan or a mortgage. (collegescorecard.ed.gov) Shorter programs are gaining ground in exactly that environment. The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center says community-college undergraduate certificate enrollment reached 752,000 after four straight years of growth, up 28.3% from fall 2021, while certificate and associate growth outpaced bachelor’s growth. (nscresearchcenter.org) Private colleges are also signaling how hard price resistance has become. The National Association of College and University Business Officers said the average tuition discount rate in 2024-25 hit 56.3% for first-time, full-time undergraduates at participating private nonprofit schools. (nacubo.org) So the schools with the clearest pitch in 2026 are the ones that can name a dollar amount, a commute, and a finish line. “Save $8,000 by living at home,” “finish in 18 months,” and “start at the local campus and transfer later” fit an economy where tariffs, oil, and still-sticky prices keep households counting every monthly payment. (collegescorecard.ed.gov, nscresearchcenter.org, bls.gov)
