Nearly half of circulating Bitcoin is 'underwater'
Chain analysis shows almost half of circulating Bitcoin is currently underwater as long‑term holders sell at a loss, pushing the Bitcoin Impact Index to 57.4 — a sign the market may be near capitulation. That distributional stress informs both liquidity risk and contrarian strategy backtests. (coindesk.com)
Glassnode’s on‑chain weekly noted roughly 9.2 million BTC—about a 47.3% drawdown from the ATH—were last moved at higher prices, and its Accumulation Trend Score sat below 0.5 while the 90‑day realized profit/loss ratio fell under 1.0. (insights.glassnode.com) CEX.IO’s Impact Index jumped 13 points to 57.4 during the week ending March 28, a move the firm classifies as entering a “high impact” zone historically associated with large selloffs. (kucoin.com) CEX.IO and CEX.io–sourced reporting quantified the stressed supply as roughly 9.4 million BTC (~47% of circulating supply) with long‑term holders carrying over 4.6 million BTC—about 30% of LTH stock—into loss positions. (decrypt.co) Daily stablecoin flows flipped from net inflows to outflows of approximately $292 million, while the report flagged a shift in behavior by ETFs and miners from net accumulation to selling during the same period. (kucoin.com) CEX.IO’s analysis compared the current distributional stress to mid‑2018 and mid‑2022 regimes, noting those precedents preceded price drawdowns in excess of 25% and warning a similar squeeze is possible without renewed buyer conviction. (decrypt.co) On‑chain footprints also showed holders were not aggressively depositing to exchanges en masse—a pattern CEX.IO credited with preventing deeper near‑term capitulation during February’s selloff. (decrypt.co)
