Gartner forecasts $2.59T AI spend

Gartner said on May 19 that worldwide spending on artificial intelligence is forecast to reach $2.59 trillion in 2026, up 47% from 2025. The Stamford, Connecticut, research firm said the latest outlook was driven largely by vendors and hyperscalers continuing to build out AI capacity, even as enterprise spending remains less fully deployed. Gartner published the forecast in a May 19 newsroom release, updating an earlier January outlook that had put 2026 AI spending at $2.52 trillion. The revision lifts the estimate by about $70 billion in four months and raises the projected growth rate from 44% to 47%. ### Why did Gartner raise its 2026 forecast? The May 19 update from Gartner lifted the 2026 forecast to $2.59 trillion from the $2.52 trillion estimate it published on January 15. Gartner said the increase reflected continued infrastructure buildout and a stronger short-term outlook for AI models. Gartner said AI models alone are now expected to grow 110% in 2026, adding about $6 billion in spending. The firm linked that increase to wider use of generative AI models embedded in existing software and to the rollout of AI agents across business workflows. ### Where is the money going? (gartner.com) The May 19 release said the spending surge is being dominated by vendors and hyperscalers rather than by enterprises. Gartner said companies have “yet to flex spending potential,” even as suppliers continue investing in the foundations needed to support AI products and services. (gartner.com) Gartner’s earlier January forecast said AI infrastructure would be the main driver of 2026 spending and would add $401 billion as technology providers expanded those foundations. The newer release keeps that same basic pattern: supply-side investment remains ahead of broad enterprise deployment. (gartner.com) ### How large is AI now relative to overall IT budgets? Gartner said on April 22 that worldwide IT spending is expected to reach $6.31 trillion in 2026. On that basis, the firm’s $2.59 trillion AI forecast implies AI spending equivalent to roughly 41% of projected global IT spending, based on Gartner’s own separate forecasts. (gartner.com) That comparison is an inference from two Gartner forecasts, not a figure Gartner stated directly. It shows how large AI has become inside technology budgets, with the category now measured in trillions rather than billions. (gartner.com) ### What does Gartner say about enterprise adoption? Gartner’s May 19 wording suggests a split between infrastructure investment and end-user deployment. The firm said vendors and hyperscalers are carrying most of the current spending load while enterprises have not yet reached their full spending potential. (gartner.com) Gartner has made a similar point in other recent AI research. On May 11, the firm said its 2026 CMO spend survey found marketers were allocating 15.3% of budgets to AI, but only 30% were ready to scale AI capabilities. On May 15, Gartner said 50% of enterprises without a people-centric AI strategy would lose top AI talent by 2027. Those separate findings point to adoption constraints around execution, readiness and staffing. (gartner.com) ### Why does the revision matter for companies selling AI work? The May 19 forecast gives technology vendors, cloud providers and advisers a larger headline market to point to in 2026. Gartner’s language, however, also makes clear that much of the near-term spending is still tied to capacity buildout rather than fully realized enterprise transformation. (gartner.com) For consulting and services firms, that means the next test is likely to be conversion of AI budgets into deployed systems and operating changes. That is an inference from Gartner’s description of who is spending now and who has not yet fully ramped. Gartner published the revised forecast on May 19 in its newsroom and archive pages, and the firm’s January 15 and April 22 releases remain available as benchmarks for how its 2026 outlook has changed. (gartner.com)