Tariffs: Firms Face Choice

U.S. importers now have three immediate tariff plays: seek refunds, raise prices, or move sourcing to lower-duty routes. (cbp.gov) U.S. Customs and Border Protection opened the first phase of its CAPE refund system on April 20, 2026. Phase 1 covers certain unliquidated entries and some entries filed within 80 days of liquidation, and each declaration can include up to 9,999 entries. (cbp.gov) The refund track follows the Supreme Court’s February 20, 2026 decision vacating tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The Budget Lab at Yale estimates roughly $165 billion in unlawfully collected duties may now be returned to importers. (budgetlab.yale.edu) Refunds are only one route. Customs also allows “drawback,” a program that refunds certain duties when imported goods are later exported or destroyed, and those claims have to be filed electronically in the Automated Commercial Environment. (cbp.gov) Some tariffs never went away. The Office of the United States Trade Representative said on November 26, 2025 that 178 China Section 301 exclusions were extended through November 10, 2026, leaving companies to keep matching products to narrow exemption lists. (ustr.gov) The price question is still unresolved at the checkout counter. The Budget Lab said imported core goods and durable-goods prices both rose 1.5% during 2025 through January 2026, and its implied pass-through estimates suggest tariffs were partly shifted to consumers. (budgetlab.yale.edu) Companies did not absorb the hit evenly. CNBC reported that supply-chain adviser Venky Ramesh said about 80% to 85% of tariff costs were absorbed domestically, either by companies, customers, or a mix of both, while firms in retail, autos, consumer packaged goods, and pharmaceuticals reworked planning around policy swings. (cnbc.com) The sourcing option is slower than a price change or a refund filing. Harvard Business School’s Working Knowledge reported on April 15, 2026 that U.S. imports have been shifting away from China toward Mexico and other trading partners as companies try to cut tariff exposure. (library.hbs.edu) The White House also changed the legal map after the court ruling. CNBC reported that President Donald Trump announced a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 hours after the February 20 ruling, giving companies a fresh duty baseline even as older claims moved into refund channels. (cnbc.com) That leaves importers making a spreadsheet decision with real cash consequences: file claims on past entries, reprice current shipments, or spend months rebuilding supply chains before the next tariff notice lands. (cbp.gov)