Inflation pressures mount as Fed opens April 28–29 meeting

Federal Reserve officials began their April 28–29 meeting with investors expecting rates to stay put and officials debating how plainly to warn about inflation. (money.usnews.com) (federalreserve.gov) The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, April 29, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. (federalreserve.gov) (money.usnews.com) At its March 17–18 meeting, the Fed left the federal funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% and said it would assess incoming data, the outlook, and the balance of risks. (federalreserve.gov) What changed between March and now is inflation. Reuters reported that policymakers have grown more concerned that higher energy prices could spread beyond gasoline and lift underlying inflation. (money.usnews.com) Oil is a direct problem for the Fed because it feeds quickly into consumer prices and can also change what households and businesses expect inflation to be. Reuters said benchmark crude moved back above $110 a barrel, up from about $70 before the Iran war began on February 28. (money.usnews.com) The labor market is sending a different signal. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employers added 178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate was 4.3%, while wage growth slowed to 3.5% from a year earlier. (bls.gov) (cnbc.com) That mix leaves the Fed balancing two risks at once: cutting too early while inflation is still hot, or waiting too long as hiring and wage growth cool. Investopedia said analysts expected no move this week but were watching for any shift in language on future cuts or hikes. (investopedia.com) (money.usnews.com) Markets have already adjusted to that possibility. Reuters reported traders see little chance of a rate cut before mid-2027, a much later timetable than many investors had expected earlier this year. (money.usnews.com) There is also a leadership deadline hanging over this meeting. Reuters reported Powell may be presiding over his final rate-setting meeting as chair, with Kevin Warsh expected to be confirmed in time for the June 16–17 meeting. (money.usnews.com) So the statement matters even if the rate does not move. A hold at 3.5% to 3.75% would be expected; any new warning on inflation would tell markets how long the Fed thinks this wait could last. (federalreserve.gov) (money.usnews.com)