Big‑box vacancy gap

Large U.S. warehouses are emptier than smaller industrial buildings, even as the broader market has steadied. Big-box space above 300,000 square feet ended 2025 with 9.8% vacancy, versus 4.8% for smaller industrial assets. (cushmanwakefield.com) Cushman & Wakefield said overall U.S. industrial vacancy held at 7.1% for the third straight quarter in the second half of 2025. The split by size was sharper: big-box vacancy peaked at 10.6% in mid-2025 before easing to 9.8% by year-end. (cushmanwakefield.com) That gap tracks with where new supply landed. Cushman & Wakefield said 78% of the more than 425 million square feet completed in 2024 was speculative, and 51% of year-to-date speculative deliveries in late 2024 were in buildings above 300,000 square feet. (assets.cushmanwakefield.com) Smaller buildings stayed tighter because they serve a different slice of demand. Cushman & Wakefield put vacancy for buildings under 100,000 square feet at 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 4.1% in the first quarter of 2025, well below the national average. (assets.cushmanwakefield.com 1) (assets.cushmanwakefield.com 2) Big-box warehouses are the giant fulfillment and distribution centers used by retailers, manufacturers, and third-party logistics firms. Smaller industrial space is more often tied to infill locations, local delivery, light manufacturing, and service businesses that cannot easily move to far-out greenfield sites. (cushmanwakefield.com) (jll.com) Demand did improve in 2025, but it favored newer product. Cushman & Wakefield said buildings built since 2020 accounted for 60% of first-quarter 2025 leasing volume for occupiers taking 100,000 square feet or more, and 43% of net demand in 2025 among post-2020 properties came from requirements above 500,000 square feet. (assets.cushmanwakefield.com) (cushmanwakefield.com) JLL’s national numbers show the same market cooling from the pandemic boom into a more balanced phase. JLL reported a 7.5% U.S. industrial vacancy rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, 161.1 million square feet of net absorption for the year, and 253.7 million square feet still under construction. (jll.com) Colliers said North American big-box vacancy reached 11.0% at year-end 2024, with the highest vacancy in buildings between 500,000 and 749,999 square feet at 11.7%. That suggests the pressure was concentrated in the largest formats even before 2025 demand improved. (colliers.com) Tenant mix also shifted. JLL said traditional retailers cut industrial space requirements by 16.7% year over year, while third-party logistics and distribution demand rose 12.8%, a change that helps newer logistics buildings more than older or less flexible stock. (jll.com) The result is a two-speed industrial market: giant distribution centers are still working through a construction wave, while smaller industrial space remains comparatively scarce. Cushman & Wakefield said vacancy in large-format buildings tightened as vacant deliveries slowed and demand improved, pointing to a market that is rebalancing unevenly rather than falling in unison. (cushmanwakefield.com)