Czech study: 1% Bitcoin boosts returns

Bitcoin is back in central-bank portfolio talk after Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl said a new bank study found that a 1% Bitcoin allocation raised expected returns without lifting overall portfolio risk. (cnb.cz) Michl made the case on April 28 at Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas, where he said the result came from the bank’s “new analysis” of its reserve portfolio. He said the Czech National Bank manages about $180 billion in reserves, roughly 44% of gross domestic product. (cnb.cz) The basic idea is diversification: mix assets that do not move together so one volatile holding does not control the whole portfolio. Michl said Bitcoin is “much more volatile than other assets,” but a 1% slice improved the modeled portfolio because the rest of the reserves remained spread across bonds, stocks and gold. (cnb.cz) The underlying Czech National Bank research note was published in February 2026 by Tomáš Adam, Aleš Michl and Michal Škoda. It updates earlier reserve-allocation work and says the bank tested reserve changes using historical data, while stressing that the authors’ views do not necessarily reflect the official position of the bank. (cnb.cz) That caution is central to the story. The Czech National Bank’s digital-assets pilot page says the bank is “not planning to include bitcoin or other digital assets in its international reserves in the near future,” even after approving a separate test portfolio. (cnb.cz) Instead, the bank says it bought digital assets for the first time through a $1 million pilot outside its existing international reserves. The pilot includes Bitcoin, a U.S. dollar stablecoin and a tokenized deposit, and the total amount “will not be actively increased.” (cnb.cz) The Czech National Bank says the pilot was approved by its Bank Board on October 30, 2025 after discussion of a broader digital-assets analysis. The stated goal is operational, not strategic: learn the legal, accounting, auditing, procedural, economic and security work needed to hold and trade blockchain-based assets. (cnb.cz) Michl has been pressing the diversification argument for months. In a March 2026 talk at the University of Chicago, he said the same paper used the full 2010–2025 dataset and found that “bitcoin looks like a very strong diversification asset.” (cnb.cz) In the United States, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins has been making a parallel argument for clearer crypto rules. In an April 25, 2025 speech, Atkins said market participants using blockchain “deserve clear regulatory rules of the road” and said he wanted to work with Congress on a “fit-for-purpose regulatory framework.” (sec.gov) For now, the Czech message is narrower than the conference buzz around it: a 1% Bitcoin weight looked helpful in historical modeling, but the central bank is still limiting itself to a small pilot and a longer test period. (cnb.cz 1) (cnb.cz 2)