Climate models show strong El Niño signals

NOAA forecast pages published in recent days are showing aggressive El Niño scenarios for late 2026, including one CFSv2 monthly projection that rises to about 3.9 degrees Celsius in November and an experimental SFS beta run that climbs above 2 degrees. Those model outputs circulated widely on social media on June 2 and June 3, but NOAA’s official forecast has not adopted those peak values. The Climate Prediction Center said on May 14 that El Niño is likely to emerge soon and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27, while keeping the alert status at El Niño Watch. ### What exactly are people looking at in these charts? The Climate Prediction Center’s CFSv2 page was updated on June 1 and shows monthly Niño-region sea-surface-temperature forecasts from the agency’s coupled model. The page says forecasts use initial conditions from the last 30 days, with four runs per day, and that the plots are model-based anomalies rather than NOAA’s official seasonal outlook. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA’s SFS Beta page describes a separate experimental system launched in near-real time in March 2026. The agency says the SFS Beta is built on the Unified Forecast System framework and each monthly forecast has 31 ensemble members. ### Does this mean NOAA is forecasting a “super El Niño”? NOAA’s official answer, as of June 4, is no. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The Climate Prediction Center said on May 14 that El Niño was likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance in May-July 2026, and continue through December 2026-February 2027 with a 96% chance. But the same discussion said there was still “substantial uncertainty” in peak strength and that no strength category exceeded a 37% chance. (epic.noaa.gov) The agency’s strength-probability table also stops well short of certainty for the strongest outcomes. For the overlapping November-December-January season, NOAA’s table shows a 25% chance that the relative Niño-3.4 index reaches at least 2.0°C, while the probability of at least 1.5°C is 51%. ### Why are the numbers different from the official forecast language? (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA’s model pages and NOAA’s official ENSO outlook are not the same product. The CFSv2 page carries a caution that the anomalies shown there “are not the official NCEP seasonal forecast outlooks” and says model guidance is only one factor used to issue the official forecast. The official discussion is based on broader evidence. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) On May 14, NOAA said the North American Multi-Model Ensemble average, including CFSv2, favored El Niño formation by next month and persistence through winter, but added that the strongest historical events depend on significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through summer and “it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026.” (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### What is NOAA seeing in the ocean right now? NOAA’s June 1 ENSO update said ENSO-neutral conditions were still present, even as warming signals increased. The agency reported the latest weekly Niño-3.4 value at about +0.5°C in its June 1 slide deck, with Niño 1+2 at +1.7°C and above-average subsurface heat building across the equatorial Pacific. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The May 14 diagnostic discussion also said the equatorial subsurface temperature index had increased for a sixth straight month and described widespread, significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. ### So what should readers watch next? June 11, 2026 is the next scheduled date for NOAA’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The Climate Prediction Center said that update will provide the next official judgment on whether El Niño has emerged and how forecasters assess its likely strength heading into late 2026. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)