Tankers poised to profit
Q1 estimates peg tanker winners high: Frontline (FRO) NI $350–500M (EPS ~$1.50–2.20) and International Seaways (INSW) NI $200–350M (EPS ~$3.80–6.50) — roughly 2–4x the prior quarter. (x.com) Analysts say the surge is directly tied to Gulf shipping disruption and rerouting, which is lifting freight and tanker returns. ( )
The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed on March 20, 2026, forcing Gulf crude exports onto longer alternative routings and prompting a sudden re‑calculation of tanker voyage economics. (bloomberg.com) Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) spot earnings exploded, with reported daily earnings topping $400,000 on key Middle East routes and brokers quoting subjects as high as nearly $700,000/day as the market repriced longer voyages. (lr.org) Benchmark freight measures mirrored the shock: the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index climbed above the 3,000 mark in early March, signalling extreme volatility in dirty tanker freight. (indexq.org) Frontline’s recent fleet renewal leaves it heavily exposed to VLCC upside — the company has stated a post‑transaction fleet of 81 vessels including 42 VLCCs after acquiring nine next‑gen VLCC newbuilds in January. (live.euronext.com) Frontline also flagged an expected delivery‑timed gain from those transactions on the order of roughly $217–227 million, a near‑term cash/earnings effect that will appear as vessels are delivered. (marketchameleon.com) International Seaways operates roughly 70 tankers and reported $128 million in net income for Q4 2025 and $309 million for full‑year 2025, while noting about $724 million of total liquidity at year‑end. (intlseas.com) Market houses and brokers have already moved — Clarksons and others have upgraded Frontline this month and Deutsche Bank raised its price target on International Seaways toward $80 amid the surge in spot rates. (marketscreener.com) Earnings calendars to watch: International Seaways is scheduled to report Q1 results around April 30, 2026, and Frontline is slated to report Q1 on May 22, 2026 — those prints will show how widened freight spreads translated into company profit and cash. (tipranks.com)
