US growth revises lower
US fourth‑quarter GDP growth was sharply revised down to an annualized 0.7%, signaling weaker momentum entering 2026 and raising downside risk if external shocks persist reported. At the same time the US trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January thanks to record gold and tech exports — a mixed data picture that has markets pricing a roughly 29% chance of recession this year reported reported.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said its rescheduled second estimate was pushed back because of the October–November 2025 government shutdown and that the downward revision reflected weaker exports, consumer spending, government outlays and investment. bea.gov Federal government spending fell at a 16.7% annualized rate in the quarter, a drop that officials and analysts say removed roughly 1.16 percentage points from growth. cnbc.com The Census/BEA trade release shows January exports jumped by $15.8 billion to $302.1 billion with nonmonetary gold up $4.7 billion and computer shipments up $2.6 billion, while imports eased by $2.6 billion to $356.6 billion — moves that narrowed the goods deficit. bea.gov Prediction markets put the odds of a U.S. recession near the low‑30% range (Polymarket ~30%), and U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields eased roughly 2 basis points to about 4.25% after the reports. polymarket.com
