Corporations' revenue risk

Dutch housing corporations can keep near-term building promises, but their long-term finances no longer add up, Aedes chair Liesbeth Spies said this week. (nrc.nl) Aedes said on January 12 that new calculations by the housing ministry, the Social Housing Guarantee Fund, the housing regulator and Aedes show a funding gap of nearly €20 billion for the sector’s agreed investment plans. The group said higher construction costs and higher interest rates are the main reasons. (aedes.nl) Those plans are large. Under the National Performance Agreements for 2025-2035, corporations, municipalities and the state set targets on new construction, maintenance, energy upgrades and livability through 2035. (rijksoverheid.nl) The building side has improved in the short run. Aedes said corporations completed 21,761 new homes in 2024, up 22% from 17,801 in 2023, while spending on maintenance, improvement and sustainability rose to €12.1 billion. (aedes.nl) But Aedes also said corporations are now spending more than they take in. It said all new construction, plus the gap in day-to-day finances, is being financed with borrowing. (aedes.nl) That matters because the government’s housing strategy leans heavily on this sector. The housing regulator said in February that the aim is to scale up to 30,000 social rental homes and 5,000 midmarket rental homes a year from 2029, and that municipalities, provinces and the state must help with land, permits and project support. (rijksoverheid.nl) The cabinet is still treating those production goals as achievable on paper. On April 15, Housing Minister Elanor Boekholt-O'Sullivan said the Netherlands has enough plans through 2030 to support 100,000 additional homes a year, with Woondeals remaining the main tool for coordinating delivery with provinces, municipalities, corporations and private developers. (rijksoverheid.nl) The pressure point is not only construction costs. Aedes has argued that corporate income tax is taking a growing share of cash that could otherwise go to building and retrofits, and said the sector’s annual tax bill is projected to rise from €777 million in 2025 to €1.5 billion in 2029. (aedes.nl) The housing regulator has also warned that some corporations cannot fund projects on their own and may need project support if sector-wide solidarity is not enough. The ministry said in February it wants to make that support easier to use for new-build projects. (rijksoverheid.nl) Spies’ warning lands as the Dutch state is asking the same organizations to build more, keep rents affordable and upgrade older homes at the same time. If the financing model is not changed, Aedes said, the recent rise in housing corporation construction will not hold. (nrc.nl)