AAA revises Memorial Day car travel forecast down to 39.1 million

AAA said on May 11 that 39.1 million Americans are expected to travel by car over the Memorial Day holiday period, part of a record 45 million people projected to go at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. The motor club said driving will account for 87% of holiday travelers this year. Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said in the group’s forecast that demand remains strong even with higher fuel prices. The new projection has turned attention from whether roads will be crowded to when drivers can avoid the worst backups. ### Why is 39.1 million the number to watch? AAA said 39.1 million people will travel by car over the five-day holiday stretch, making it the largest share of Memorial Day travel by far. The same forecast put total holiday travel at 45 million people and domestic air travel at 3.66 million. (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA said the driving total is a slight increase from last year and sets a new Memorial Day weekend record. Barber said the holiday’s three-day break and steady leisure demand are helping keep trips on the calendar despite higher fuel costs. ### When are the worst traffic windows? (newsroom.aaa.com) INRIX data cited by AAA and Axios points to Thursday and Friday afternoons as the heaviest congestion periods nationally, with Monday afternoon also expected to be crowded as travelers head home. Axios summarized the guidance as a simple rule for drivers: stay off the road Thursday and Friday afternoons if possible. (newsroom.aaa.com) Axios also reported that Sunday is expected to have light traffic all day. That makes departure timing one of the few variables travelers can still control in a weekend when overall volumes are expected to be at record levels. ### Why are Miami and Tampa Bay getting extra attention? Axios reported on May 18 that Miami is among the hottest U.S. destinations for the holiday, with South Florida expected to see busy roads and crowded beaches. (inrix.com) The outlet tied that local outlook to AAA’s national forecast for the busiest Memorial Day travel period on record. (axios.com) Axios reported separately that Tampa Bay drivers should expect the worst local traffic on Thursday and Friday afternoons, again citing INRIX forecasts. The Tampa Bay report said departure time could determine how much holiday traffic travelers face. ### What is AAA saying about costs and car prep? (axios.com) AAA said drivers are paying more for gasoline than they did over Memorial Day last year, when the national average for regular gas was $3.17 a gallon. The group said current pump prices are the highest since the summer of 2022. Last Memorial Day weekend, AAA said it responded to more than 350,000 roadside assistance calls involving dead batteries, flat tires and empty fuel tanks. (axios.com) The group urged drivers to check batteries, tire pressure and fluids before leaving. ### What does the Wisconsin forecast show? (newsroom.aaa.com) AAA Wisconsin said 834,000 residents are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home during the same May 21-25 holiday period. Spectrum News 1 and AAA Wisconsin said that figure is slightly below last year’s level, and AAA attributed the softer growth to higher costs. (newsroom.aaa.com) Spectrum News 1 reported that 744,000 of those Wisconsin travelers are expected to drive. The outlet said gas in Wisconsin stood at $4.52 as of Monday, May 18, up $1.53 from a year earlier. ### What should travelers watch next? Thursday, May 21, is the start of AAA’s Memorial Day travel window, and Friday, May 22, is expected to be one of the busiest pickup days for Hertz rental cars, according to AAA. (spectrumnews1.com) The group said Orlando, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Denver and Boston are the top rental markets for the holiday weekend. (newsroom.aaa.com)