Air freight easing slowly
Air-cargo capacity is starting to recover after Gulf airspace disruptions, but full normalization on routes that transit Middle Eastern hubs could still take one to two months, so premium air remains a constrained contingency. That means buyers who were planning to rely on air as an on-demand recovery tool should re-check availability and pricing assumptions for the next 30–60 days. (stattimes.com)
Air freight is loosening up a little after the Gulf airspace shock, but the routes that run through hubs like Dubai and Doha are still not back to normal, and analysts say a full reset can take another one to two months. (stattimes.com) That delay starts with geography. A huge share of cargo moving between Asia and Europe, and some freight from South Asia to North America, normally touches Middle Eastern airspace or hubs, so when that corridor breaks, the disruption spreads far beyond the Gulf. (payloadasia.com) In early March, Xeneta said the first wave of closures and cancellations pulled roughly 16% to 18% of global air-cargo capacity out of the market almost overnight. That is like taking away every sixth seat on a fully booked train and then asking the same crowd to board anyway. (xeneta.com) Airlines did not just lose slots. They had to reroute around closed airspace, which adds flying time, burns more fuel, and knocks aircraft and crews out of their normal rotations for the rest of the day. (bertling.com) That is why rates jumped so fast. Xeneta said the average air-cargo spot rate in March reached $2.86 per kilogram, up 14% from a year earlier, as shippers competed for fewer available flights. (supplychaindive.com) The ceasefire has started to take some pressure off, and carriers are gradually adding flights back. But booking restrictions and carrier-specific limits still run through April, May, June, and in some cases as far as September 2026, depending on the route. (cargo.one) Even after flights return, the market does not snap back in a day. Aircraft have to be repositioned, schedules have to be rebuilt, and cargo that piled up at origin and transit points has to be cleared before the network feels normal again. (metro.global) There is a second squeeze underneath the airspace story: fuel. The International Air Transport Association said jet-fuel supply problems linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruption could last for months even if the waterway stays open, which keeps airline costs elevated after the first operational shock fades. (aircargoweek.com) So the old backup plan of “just move it by air” is still shaky for the next 30 to 60 days. Premium air freight is available in parts of the market, but it is no longer the kind of on-demand escape hatch buyers could assume would be there at yesterday’s price. (stattimes.com) Some forwarders are already steering customers toward sea-air combinations instead of pure air freight. Flexport said its Asia-to-Europe sea-air product can move cargo in as few as 27 days at rates up to 41% below full air, which shows how quickly shippers are hunting for middle-ground options when direct air stays tight. (flexport.com)
