FAO warns agri-food crisis risk

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization has been warning for weeks that disruption in and around the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just an energy or shipping story. In a series of statements published in April and May, FAO said the shock is spreading through fertilizer, fuel, food imports and humanitarian supply chains, and could become a broader agrifood crisis if trade routes remain constrained. The agency’s most recent warning, published on May 20, said a severe global food price crisis could emerge within six to 12 months if governments and markets fail to adapt. ### Why is FAO talking about food when the disruption starts with ships and oil? The Strait of Hormuz is a major corridor not only for oil and gas, but also for fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. FAO said on April 28 that the route normally carries about 20 million barrels of oil per day, or roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade, alongside significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and vital fertilizers. (fao.org) FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said on April 13 that ships carrying critical agricultural inputs needed to start moving through the strait “as soon as possible” to avoid a later surge in food price inflation. FAO’s argument is that higher energy costs raise farm and transport costs immediately, while fertilizer shortages hit planting decisions and then crop yields later in the season. (fao.org) ### What is the chain reaction FAO says could turn this into an agri-food crisis? FAO said on May 20 that the shock unfolds in stages: energy, fertilizer, seeds, lower yields, commodity price increases, then food inflation. That sequence matters because the most visible problem at the start — maritime disruption — can feed into agricultural production months later, after farmers have already missed planting or fertilizer application windows. (fao.org) QU Dongyu, FAO’s director-general, said on April 28 that fertilizer applications “must align precisely with planting windows that cannot be rescheduled without permanent yield losses.” FAO also said fertilizer trade delays were already jeopardizing productivity, with 1.5 million to 3 million tons per month affected, and reported that urea prices had risen 52% in the United States and 60% in Brazil by mid-April. (fao.org) ### Which countries and supply chains does FAO say are most exposed? FAO said Gulf countries rely on imports for 70% to 90% of their staple food supply, making food-import disruption an immediate regional risk. The agency also said countries dependent on Gulf fertilizer flows face acute exposure; it cited Bangladesh as importing 53% of its fertilizer from the Gulf. (fao.org) The March 2026 FAO report on the Middle East conflict said the risks extend well beyond the Gulf. It identified Africa, Asia and other import-dependent regions as vulnerable to higher input costs, crop losses, remittance pressure and food price volatility. ### What has FAO actually told governments and traders to do now? FAO said on May 20 that countries should secure alternative land and sea corridors, avoid export restrictions, protect humanitarian flows and build buffers to absorb higher transport costs. (fao.org) David Laborde, director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division, said alternative routes could include corridors via the eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea, while warning that those routes have limited capacity. (openknowledge.fao.org) Torero said on April 13 that governments should also consider financing tools to help countries obtain fertilizer without triggering subsidy races. FAO’s published recommendations include stronger market monitoring, support for farmers and targeted aid for vulnerable import-dependent countries. ### What should readers watch next? (fao.org) FAO said decisions being taken now on fertilizer use, imports, financing and crop choices will determine whether the current shock becomes a food price crisis within six to 12 months. The agency’s next public markers are likely to be updates to its Food Price Index, additional newsroom statements, and further remarks from Torero, Laborde and QU Dongyu on shipping through Hormuz and alternative Red Sea routes. (fao.org 1) (fao.org 2)