OECD hikes U.S. inflation
The OECD just raised its U.S. inflation forecast for 2026 to 4.2% — a big upward surprise and well above the Fed’s 2.7% estimate. The agency pins the jump on energy shocks and supply‑chain fallout tied to the Middle East conflict, signalling higher costs across the board. (bloomberg.com) (irishtimes.com)
The OECD’s March interim update lifts its U.S. inflation outlook sharply from the prior projection of 2.8% published in December. (cnbc.com) (cnbc.com) The agency points to a near‑halt of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as a primary transmission channel for higher prices. (reuters.com) (money.usnews.com) The OECD now expects G20 headline inflation of about 4.0% in 2026, an increase of roughly 1.2 percentage points versus its December estimate. (forbes.com) (forbes.com) Global GDP growth for 2026 has been trimmed to 2.9% from 3.3% last year in the OECD update, reflecting the hit from higher energy and commodity prices. (money.usnews.com) (money.usnews.com) The Interim Economic Outlook urges governments to use well‑targeted support for households most affected by higher energy costs, preserve incentives to lower energy use, and include clear expiry mechanisms for those measures. (oecd.org) (oecd.org) The OECD also warns of “significant downside risk” if Middle East export disruptions persist and asks central banks to remain vigilant about broadening price pressures. (bloomberg.com) (bloomberg.com) Britain is singled out as the hardest‑hit major economy in the update, with 2026 growth cut to about 0.7% and inflation raised by around 1.5 percentage points versus December’s outlook. (arabnews.com) (arabnews.com)
