Condo glut chills homebuilding
Canada’s homebuilding pipeline is set to slow as a surge of unsold condo units is chilling new development—housing starts are forecast to fall through 2028, developers say reported. A coalition of 17 housing and development groups is publicly urging federal and Ontario governments to act, arguing the market weakness plus rising costs risk a deep near-term slowdown.
CMHC reported 259,028 housing starts in 2025 cmhc-schl.gc.ca, and its Housing Market Outlook projected starts would drop to about 247,000 in 2026 and 223,000 in 2027 as construction costs, weak presales and rising inventories weigh on builder activity mpamag.com. Completed-and-unsold inventory reached a record 18,998 units in December 2025 (up 35.5% year‑over‑year), with roughly half of that excess stock located in the Toronto and Vancouver CMAs, according to CMHC‑derived data highlighted by Better Dwelling. betterdwelling.com Urbanation’s year‑end 2025 survey found Greater Toronto‑Hamilton Area new condo sales plunged 60% to 1,599 units—the weakest annual result since 1991—and reported 7,243 units were cancelled in 2025 as launches stalled and average new launch pricing fell to roughly $1,123 per sq. ft. in 2025. urbanation.ca The Housing Advancement Coalition—a 17‑member industry grouping led by TRREB—sent a February letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford urging temporary expansion of the GST/HST new‑home rebate to all buyers (proposed caps: $1.0M general, $1.3M in GTHA/GVA) for three years and calling for reforms to mortgage qualification rules and municipal development charges to unblock stalled projects. canada.constructconnect.com
