Post shows fighter jets over Erbil

An X post that circulated widely on May 23 showed fighter jets flying over Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, and claimed the route could serve as a corridor for Israeli operations. The same thread added a broader warning: “Iran is warming up the missiles. Hormuz closed. Oil at $150.” The post, from the account CollinsofYork, was shared as fighting linked to the Iran war continued to spill across Iraq and energy markets remained under strain. The footage itself showed aircraft over Erbil, but the operational claim in the post was not independently substantiated in the material reviewed. ### What exactly did the viral post claim? The May 23 X post paired video of jets over Erbil with three separate assertions: that the aircraft were linked to a possible Israeli flight path, that Iran was preparing missile activity, and that the Strait of Hormuz was closed with oil headed to $150. Those are distinct claims — military movement, imminent escalation and a market forecast — compressed into one social-media frame. The Erbil reference landed in an already tense setting. Erbil has been repeatedly drawn into the regional conflict since late February, including missile and drone attacks tied to the war, according to reporting cited by regional outlets and conflict trackers. ### Why does Erbil feature so heavily in these posts? Erbil is a major city in northern Iraq and has become one of the main places where the Iran war’s spillover is visible. The Kurdistan region has faced repeated attacks since February 28, according to multiple reports, and Erbil’s airport and surrounding area have been central reference points in coverage of those strikes. (iraq.liveuamap.com) May 15 reporting from the Associated Press said Israeli forces had set up a temporary post in Iraq’s western desert at the start of the war, according to Iraqi and U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. A senior U.S. military official described it to AP not as a formal base but as a “temporary staging area or camp to support operations in Iran.” That report concerned Iraq’s western desert, not Erbil, but it helps explain why social-media users are now scrutinizing Iraqi airspace for signs of Israeli activity. (en.wikipedia.org) ### Does the post prove a confirmed Israeli corridor over Erbil? The video does not by itself prove that the aircraft were Israeli or that Erbil was being used as an operational corridor. The source material available here confirms the existence of wider Israeli activity in Iraq during the war, including the reported desert staging site, but it does not establish that the jets in the May 23 clip were part of a specific Israeli mission over Erbil. (usnews.com) Al Jazeera reported on May 12 that U.S. media reports had described a secret Israeli outpost in Iraq used to support the air campaign against Iran. That reporting again pointed to the Iraqi desert and cited open-source analysis and prior reporting, not publicly released evidence about the May 23 Erbil footage. ### What about the “Hormuz closed” and “oil at $150” part? (usnews.com) The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on May 12 that global oil markets were already dealing with the “de facto closure” of the Strait of Hormuz. The agency said Brent crude averaged $117 a barrel in April and that daily spot prices reached as high as $138 on April 7. It also said its base case assumed the strait would remain effectively closed through late May, with flows slowly starting to resume in late May or early June. (aljazeera.com) That means the post’s Hormuz language matched a real market disruption, but the specific “oil at $150” figure was a forward-looking price call in the post, not the prevailing price cited by the EIA in its latest published outlook. ### What can be verified now, and what remains unverified? The verifiable parts are narrower than the post suggests. A widely shared X post on May 23 showed jets over Erbil, and Erbil is a real flashpoint in the regional war. (eia.gov) Iraq has also been drawn into reported Israeli military activity during the conflict, according to AP and other reporting. The unverified part is the leap from aircraft in the video to a confirmed Israeli operational corridor over Erbil on May 23. The next hard datapoint on the market side is June 9, when the EIA is scheduled to publish its next Short-Term Energy Outlook. (eia.gov) (usnews.com)