Trump's import taxes face expiry

President Donald Trump’s fallback import taxes are on a clock: the 10% global surcharge he imposed in February expires on July 24 unless Congress extends it. (politico.com) (natlawreview.com) The administration began the next phase on April 28, when the Office of the United States Trade Representative opened Section 301 hearings into 60 economies over forced-labor enforcement. A second set of hearings on excess industrial capacity across 16 trading partners is scheduled to begin May 5. (ustr.gov) (abcnews.com) (ustr.gov)) Those investigations are meant to produce sturdier tariffs under the Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s broader emergency-powers approach on February 20. The justices ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the sweeping 2025 tariffs. (scotusblog.com) (cbsnews.com) Trump responded by invoking Section 122 of the 1974 trade law, which allows a temporary import surcharge of up to 15% for 150 days to address a large balance-of-payments deficit. He imposed 10% instead, and the White House has treated it as a bridge to more permanent duties. (politico.com) (natlawreview.com) The legal risk did not disappear with the switch. A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade questioned on April 10 whether Trump had properly used Section 122, and no ruling has been issued yet. (politico.com) The forced-labor investigation reaches 60 economies that U.S. officials say account for 99% of American imports. The excess-capacity probe covers 16 partners, including China, the European Union, Japan, India and Mexico. (abcnews.com) (federalregister.gov 1) (federalregister.gov 2) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already said the government will replace the revenue from the struck-down tariffs with new import taxes, including duties imposed under Section 301. Importers and several Democratic-led states argue that shows the outcome is being prewritten. (abcnews.com) (politico.com) The Supreme Court ruling also left open the question of refunds for tariffs already paid under the invalidated emergency orders. SCOTUSblog said those payments were estimated at more than $200 billion in 2025, while legal analysts say the administration’s later filings put the figure above $100 billion. (scotusblog.com) (natlawreview.com) For businesses, the immediate issue is timing. The temporary surcharge ends in less than three months, the court fight over Section 122 is still live, and the Section 301 cases that could replace it are only now entering hearings. (abcnews.com) (politico.com) (ustr.gov) That leaves Trump’s trade agenda in a narrow window between court limits and new tariff authorities. By July 24, Congress, the courts or the trade office will have to decide what replaces the stopgap. (natlawreview.com) (abcnews.com)