Scientists warn 82% chance El Niño 2026

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on May 14 that El Niño is likely to emerge between May and July 2026, assigning the climate pattern an 82% probability in its latest ENSO diagnostic discussion. The agency said the odds rise to 96% for El Niño to persist through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. The forecast has drawn attention beyond seasonal outlooks because coral scientists say a strong El Niño could hit reefs already weakened by back-to-back bleaching. Clint Oakley, a coral scientist at Victoria University of Wellington, told AFP he felt “dread, although not surprised” at the prospect of a strong event, adding that it could be “serious and devastating for many reefs around the world.” (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The 82% figure reported by Havana Times matches NOAA’s May 14 update, which said El Niño was likely to “emerge soon” rather than guaranteed to arrive. NOAA’s alert status remained “El Niño Watch,” a designation used when conditions are favorable for development but the event has not yet been declared underway. ### Where does the 82% number come from? (jamaicaobserver.com) NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center published the 82% estimate in its ENSO Diagnostic Discussion dated May 14, 2026. The agency said oceanic and atmospheric indicators support a transition from ENSO-neutral conditions toward El Niño during the May-July period. Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society published a similar assessment, with its May outlook showing a 98% probability of El Niño during May-July 2026 in its model-based forecast. (havanatimes.org) That does not replace NOAA’s official number, but it points in the same direction. ### Why are coral scientists focused on this forecast? (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) AFP reported on May 24 that coral scientists fear a potentially powerful El Niño could intensify marine heat stress on reefs that have already gone through repeated bleaching. Oakley said every global coral bleaching event has occurred during an El Niño year, linking the forecast directly to reef concerns. (iri.columbia.edu) The warning is about added stress rather than a single cause. El Niño shifts ocean and weather patterns globally, and scientists cited by Jamaica Observer said that extra heat can compound damage to coral systems that are already vulnerable. ### Does NOAA say this will be a historically strong El Niño? NOAA’s May 14 discussion said El Niño is likely to form and persist, but the agency summary available in the forecast page does not declare that a historically strong event is certain. (jamaicaobserver.com) It says uncertainty remains around eventual strength even as the probability of development is high. Some media reports have gone further, citing model scenarios that could place the event among the stronger El Niños on record. Those characterizations are based on forecast interpretation, not on NOAA declaring that outcome in its official summary. ### What could El Niño change if it develops? (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) El Niño is associated with broad shifts in rainfall, heat and storm patterns around the world. NOAA said the event could continue through winter 2026-27, extending its influence well beyond the next few months if the forecast verifies. USA Today, citing NOAA’s forecast, reported that the developing pattern could affect hurricane season and broader weather risks. (downtoearth.org.in) Separate coverage has also highlighted possible flooding, heat and drought effects in different regions, though those impacts vary by location and timing. ### What should readers watch next? (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA said weekly updates on oceanic and atmospheric conditions will continue through the Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO pages. The next important milestone is not a headline number but the point at which forecasters determine that El Niño conditions have actually formed. The 2026 reef season and later Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 will be the periods scientists and forecasters watch most closely. (usatoday.com) Coral researchers, including Oakley, and NOAA forecasters are now tracking whether the Pacific warming strengthens, stabilizes or fades in the months ahead. (jamaicaobserver.com) (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)